L. Fernandez vs E. Mertens prediction

AI prediction

Probability for members

The model has L. Fernandez winning this match. Create a free account to see with what probability, and the most likely set score.

Predicted winner: L. Fernandez
Probability: Members only
Likely score: Members only

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Every prediction is computed before the match and never edited afterwards: the model's real accuracy is published match by match.

WTATokyoRound of 16hard court03:00

L. Fernandez

E. Mertens

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Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Fernandez

E. Mertens

7 – 3
Wins – losses: 5 – 5; 16 – 11
Sets won – lost: 12 – 12; 1 loss
Current streak: 1 win; 27-26 (51%)
2026 record: 34-22 (61%); 117-79 (60%)
Record on hard court: 120-80 (60%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Fernandez and E. Mertens, before this match.

Recent matches

L. Fernandez's last five matches

DE. RybakinaNingbo 2026 · Final · 25 October 20262-6 2-6
VM. BouzkovaNingbo 2026 · Semi-final · 24 October 20266-3 7-5
VE. AlexandrovaNingbo 2026 · Quarter-final · 23 October 20264-6 6-2 6-1
VA. SasnovichNingbo 2026 · Round of 16 · 21 October 20267-5 6-7 6-3
VE. MertensNingbo 2026 · Round of 32 · 19 October 20262-6 6-3 7-5

E. Mertens's last five matches

VM. UchijimaTokyo 2026 · Round of 32 · 26 October 20266-4 6-2
DL. FernandezNingbo 2026 · Round of 32 · 19 October 20266-2 3-6 5-7
DD. SnigurWuhan 2026 · Round of 64 · 13 October 20264-6 5-7
DQ. ZhengBeijing 2026 · Semi-final · 10 October 20265-7 2-6
VI. SwiatekBeijing 2026 · Quarter-final · 9 October 20267-6 6-3

Head-to-head since 2020

L. Fernandez leads 2 to 1

VE. MertensNingbo 2026 · Round of 32 · 19 October 20262-6 6-3 7-5
DE. MertensDubai 2025 · Round of 64 · 16 February 20252-6 2-6
VE. MertensWTA Guadalajara 2023 · Round of 32 · 19 September 20236-3 6-4

Road through the tournament

This is L. Fernandez's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, E. Mertens beat M. Uchijima (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by B. Bencic, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-2 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Fernandez wins 49 % (39 of 79), E. Mertens 54 % (32 of 59). In deciding sets, L. Fernandez wins 53 % of the time (94 matches), E. Mertens 49 % (87 matches). After losing the first set, L. Fernandez turned 18 % of matches around (130 occasions), E. Mertens 23 % (120 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Fernandez went on to win 88 % of matches, E. Mertens 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Fernandez – E. Mertens

Who is the favourite between L. Fernandez and E. Mertens?: No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model has L. Fernandez winning. The win probability and most likely score are for members before the match.
When is the L. Fernandez – E. Mertens match?: On Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 03:00, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Fernandez and E. Mertens?: Since 2020, L. Fernandez leads 2 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Fernandez – E. Mertens?: In the Pronocast app, for members: probability of winning, most likely score and comparison with the odds. It will be published on this page with the result once the match is over.

How the model computes its predictions