ATP Masters 1000 · Indoor hard
Rolex Paris Masters 2026 predictions
The last Masters 1000 of the season, the Rolex Paris Masters is played indoors on hard court in late October and early November, at Paris La Défense Arena since 2025 (it was previously held at Bercy). Pronocast publishes the favourite of every match before it starts, then checks it against the result.
The 2026 schedule has not been published yet
As soon as matches are scheduled, the model's favourite appears here for each of them. The win probability and likely score are reserved for members, free during the beta.
Previous editions started between 25 October and 30 October, qualifying included.
The tournament in numbers
Computed over the last 5 editions, qualifying included.
- editions analysed
- 5
- matches per edition on average
- 73
- of matches go to a third set
- 40%
- of matches include a tie-break
- 42%
Past winners
- 2025J. Sinner
d. F. Auger-Aliassime6-4 7-6
See the 2025 edition - 2024A. Zverev
d. U. Humbert6-2 6-2
See the 2024 edition - 2023N. Djokovic
d. G. Dimitrov6-4 6-3
See the 2023 edition - 2022H. Rune
d. N. Djokovic3-6 6-3 7-5
See the 2022 edition - 2021N. Djokovic
d. D. Medvedev4-6 6-3 6-3
See the 2021 edition
How to approach the Paris Masters predictions
Tight matches: over the last 5 editions, 40% went to a third set and 42% include at least one tie-break. Three readings to avoid the wrong signal:
- MethodClay, hard or grass: what the surface really changes in tennisAcross 36,210 matches, a player’s overall level predicts better than their record on the day’s surface, and grass is where favourites fall most often.
- MethodHead-to-head in tennis: does the H2H really predict the winner?Across 38,123 matches, the head-to-head leader wins less often than the Elo favourite. But a record against the favourite really does count.
- MethodElo in tennis: understanding the rating that predicts matchesWhy a rating designed for chess predicts a tennis match better than the ATP ranking, and which adjustments it needs to really work.
What the model is worth on the ATP tour
70.8 % of predictions correct over the 339 ATP matches verified since 8 September 2026, misses included.
Paris Masters questions
- When is the Rolex Paris Masters 2026 played?
- The tournament is traditionally played in late October and early November: previous editions started between 25 October and 30 October, qualifying included. The exact 2026 dates appear on this page as soon as the schedule is published.
- What surface is the Paris Masters played on?
- Indoor hard court, at Paris La Défense Arena (Nanterre) since 2025, after decades at the Palais omnisports de Paris-Bercy. It is the last Masters 1000 of the season, before the ATP Finals.
- Who won the Rolex Paris Masters 2025?
- J. Sinner won the 2025 edition, beating F. Auger-Aliassime in the final (6-4 7-6).
- How are the Paris Masters predictions computed?
- As for every tournament: overall and hard-court Elo, recent form, fatigue, head-to-head and odds feed the model. The favourite of each match is published before it starts, then checked against the result.
- Where can I see the prediction for each match?
- On this page as soon as the schedule is known, and in today's ATP predictions. The win probability and likely score are reserved for members.