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Verified track record

Our tennis prediction results

Every prediction is published before the match, frozen, then checked against the result. Here is the full track record, updated several times a day, misses included.

67.8 %

of predictions correct

1,774 correct out of 2,618 matches checked since 8 September 2026

matches checked
2,618
days tracked
32
correct when the favourite is given 70% or more
83.5 %

50%: a coin flip

How every prediction is checked

  1. 01

    Published before the match

    The favourite and their win probability are computed and recorded before the first point.

  2. 02

    Frozen

    No prediction is edited or removed afterwards, even when it turns out wrong.

  3. 03

    Checked against the result

    When the match ends, the official result decides: the prediction is correct if the announced favourite won.

Accuracy over time

Share of correct predictions since the start, recomputed every day (curve drawn from the first 50 matches).

By tour

  • ATP341 matches
    70.7 %
  • WTA298 matches
    69.8 %
  • Challenger1,491 matches
    67.8 %
  • Doubles488 matches
    64.3 %

By surface

  • Hard court1,438 matches
    68.0 %
  • Clay604 matches
    69.4 %

Can the announced probabilities be trusted?

When the model gives a favourite 75%, that player should win about three times out of four. Here the announced probability is compared with what actually happened.

Actually wonAnnounced probability
  • Favourite given 50 to 59%897 matches

    54.3 % won for 55.0 % announced

  • Favourite given 60 to 69%739 matches

    63.7 % won for 64.7 % announced

  • Favourite given 70 to 79%542 matches

    76.9 % won for 74.6 % announced

  • Favourite given 80% or more440 matches

    90.7 % won for 86.9 % announced

The latest checked predictions

The most recent ones, correct and missed alike. Every match has its own page, with the prediction published before it started.

All results for 9 October 2026

Tomorrow's predictions are already computed

Win probability and likely score for every ATP, WTA and Challenger match. Free during the beta.

Create a free accountToday's predictions

Questions about our results

How can you tell if a tennis prediction is reliable?
Check that it was published before the match and that it is compared with the result, misses included. At Pronocast, all 2,618 checked predictions are online, each on its match page, never edited afterwards.
What is Pronocast's prediction accuracy?
67.8 % of predictions correct over 2,618 ATP, WTA and Challenger matches checked since 8 September 2026. The figure is recomputed several times a day.
What counts as a correct prediction?
A prediction is correct when the player the model named as favourite wins the match. Cancelled matches are not counted, as they have no result.
Why show the number of matches next to each percentage?
Because a percentage computed on few matches swings a lot from one week to the next. The number of matches tells you how much weight to give each figure.

Read the full methodology