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C. Chen vs P. Nesterov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. ChenP. Nesterov
10.0 %90.0 %
Model favourite
P. Nesterov
Probability
90 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · P. Nesterov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaQualifyingclay15:15
C. Chen
C. Chen
vs
P. Nesterov
P. Nesterov
1242
Elo
1893
1233
Elo on clay
1854
0 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
4
Even
Head-to-head
Even
6.26
Odds
1.04

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Chen
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
P. Nesterov
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
1 – 9
Wins – losses
6 – 4
4 – 18
Sets won – lost
15 – 9
8 losses
Current streak
1 loss
–
2026 record
24-15 (62%)
–
Record on clay
30-24 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Chen and P. Nesterov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Nesterov comes in with an Elo of 1893, against 1242 for C. Chen: a 651-point edge. On clay, the gap is 620 points in favour of P. Nesterov. C. Chen won 0 of the last ten matches, P. Nesterov won 5. C. Chen has no win in the last five matches. P. Nesterov has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Nesterov the favourite.

The model gave P. Nesterov the win at 90 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Nesterov won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Chen's last five matches

P. Nesterov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is C. Chen's first match of the tournament. This is P. Nesterov's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

After losing the first set, C. Chen turned 8 % of matches around (13 occasions), P. Nesterov 18 % (38 occasions).

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Chen – P. Nesterov

Who is the favourite between C. Chen and P. Nesterov?
The match is over: P. Nesterov won 2-1. Bookmakers make P. Nesterov the favourite, priced at 1.04 against 6.26 for C. Chen. Pronocast's model had P. Nesterov winning at 90 %.
When is the C. Chen – P. Nesterov match?
On Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 15:15, at the Villena tournament (Qualifying, clay).
What is the head-to-head between C. Chen and P. Nesterov?
No meeting between C. Chen and P. Nesterov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Chen – P. Nesterov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Villena

Tournament page

Other matches on 4 October 2026

All matches on 4 October 2026