D. Stricker vs M. Topo prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction

D. StrickerM. Topo

62.4 %37.6 %

Model favourite: D. Stricker
Probability: 62 %
Predicted score: 2-0; Exact score
Actual score: 2-0 · D. Stricker

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaQualifyingclay12:05

D. Stricker

M. Topo

1996
Elo: 1859; 1971
Elo on clay: 1825; 7 / 10
Form (last 10): 8 / 10; 3
Recent matches: 3; –
Head-to-head: Edge; 1.48
Odds: 2.40

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Stricker

M. Topo

7 – 3
Wins – losses: 5 – 5; 15 – 8
Sets won – lost: 11 – 13; 1 win
Current streak: 1 win; 21-11 (66%)
2026 record: 12-20 (38%); 49-36 (58%)
Record on clay: 65-66 (50%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Stricker and M. Topo, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Stricker comes in with an Elo of 1996, against 1859 for M. Topo: a 136-point edge. On clay, the gap is 147 points in favour of D. Stricker. D. Stricker won 7 of the last ten matches, M. Topo won 8. D. Stricker has 2 wins in the last five matches. M. Topo has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Topo leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Stricker the favourite.

The model gave D. Stricker the win at 62 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Stricker won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

D. Stricker's last five matches

VE. Carrascosa DiazVillena 2026 · Qualifying · 4 October 20266-3 7-5
DH. BernetMouilleron-Le-Captif 2026 · Round of 16 · 1 October 20261-6 6-7
VL. BroadyMouilleron-Le-Captif 2026 · Round of 32 · 30 September 20266-4 3-6 6-1
DJ. FonsecaATP Davis Cup - World Group I 2026 · 18 September 20266-4 3-6 2-6
DM. KrumichAugsburg 2026 · Round of 32 · 25 August 20262-6 3-6

M. Topo's last five matches

VN. ViskerVillena 2026 · Qualifying · 4 October 20267-5 7-6
DP. NesterovPorto 2026 · Qualifying · 28 September 20264-6 2-6
VM. Gonzalez FernandezPorto 2026 · Qualifying · 27 September 20266-3 6-7 6-3
DV. SachkoTulln 2026 · Round of 16 · 9 September 20262-6 4-6
VD. E. GalanTulln 2026 · Round of 32 · 7 September 20266-2 4-6 6-3

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Topo leads 1 to 0

DM. TopoTulln 2025 · Round of 32 · 2 September 20254-6 4-6

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, D. Stricker beat E. Carrascosa Diaz (6-3 7-5). To reach this round, M. Topo beat N. Visker (7-5 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Stricker wins 52 % (51 of 99), M. Topo 58 % (37 of 64). In deciding sets, D. Stricker wins 59 % of the time (68 matches), M. Topo 44 % (61 matches). After losing the first set, D. Stricker turned 25 % of matches around (102 occasions), M. Topo 16 % (75 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Stricker went on to win 85 % of matches, M. Topo 77 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Stricker – M. Topo

Who is the favourite between D. Stricker and M. Topo?: The match is over: D. Stricker won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Stricker the favourite, priced at 1.48 against 2.40 for M. Topo. Pronocast's model had D. Stricker winning at 62 %.
When is the D. Stricker – M. Topo match?: On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 12:05, at the Villena tournament (Qualifying, clay).
What is the head-to-head between D. Stricker and M. Topo?: Since 2020, M. Topo leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Stricker – M. Topo?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions