G. Villanueva vs N. Hardt prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction

G. VillanuevaN. Hardt

49.3 %50.7 %

Model favourite: N. Hardt
Probability: 51 %
Predicted score: 0-2
Actual score: 1-2 · N. Hardt

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerAntofagastaRound of 32clay19:15

G. Villanueva

N. Hardt

1896
Elo: 1909; 1903
Elo on clay: 1897; 6 / 10
Form (last 10): 5 / 10; 4
Recent matches: 0; –
Head-to-head: Edge; 1.88
Odds: 1.82

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

G. Villanueva

N. Hardt

6 – 4
Wins – losses: 5 – 5; 14 – 9
Sets won – lost: 12 – 11; 1 loss
Current streak: 2 wins; 24-19 (56%)
2026 record: 18-9 (67%); 135-139 (49%)
Record on clay: 69-67 (51%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by G. Villanueva and N. Hardt, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (1896 against 1909): nothing separates them in the model's rating. G. Villanueva won 6 of the last ten matches, N. Hardt won 5. G. Villanueva has 2 wins in the last five matches. N. Hardt has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, G. Villanueva leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make N. Hardt the favourite.

The model gave N. Hardt the win at 51 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Hardt won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

G. Villanueva's last five matches

DG. I. JustoCuritiba 2026 · Quarter-final · 2 October 20262-6 4-6
VM. AlvesCuritiba 2026 · Round of 16 · 1 October 20266-2 6-3
VJ. C. Prado AngeloCuritiba 2026 · Round of 32 · 30 September 20263-6 6-3 6-4
DG. I. JustoBuenos Aires 3 2026 · Round of 32 · 22 September 20264-6 6-3 1-6
DM. MartineauSegovia 2026 · Round of 16 · 23 July 20263-6 6-7

N. Hardt's last five matches

VO. KandilATP Davis Cup - World Group II 2026 · 19 September 20266-2 6-1
VK. MabroukATP Davis Cup - World Group II 2026 · 18 September 20266-2 6-3
DM. CecchinatoPorto 2 2026 · Round of 32 · 1 September 20266-4 0-6 3-6
DK. WehneltAugsburg 2026 · Round of 32 · 25 August 20266-2 3-6 2-6
DO. KrutykhPrague 2026 · Round of 16 · 19 August 20263-6 0-6

Head-to-head since 2020

G. Villanueva leads 1 to 0

VN. HardtBuenos Aires Challenger Men 2023 · Round of 16 · 26 April 20237-5 1-6 7-5

Road through the tournament

This is G. Villanueva's first match of the tournament. This is N. Hardt's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Garin, who beat F. Diaz Acosta in the final (2-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, G. Villanueva wins 45 % (41 of 91), N. Hardt 56 % (28 of 50). In deciding sets, G. Villanueva wins 56 % of the time (89 matches), N. Hardt 52 % (64 matches). After losing the first set, G. Villanueva turned 20 % of matches around (164 occasions), N. Hardt 17 % (82 occasions). After winning the first set, G. Villanueva went on to win 86 % of matches, N. Hardt 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about G. Villanueva – N. Hardt

Who is the favourite between G. Villanueva and N. Hardt?: The match is over: N. Hardt won 2-1. Bookmakers cannot separate the two players: G. Villanueva is priced at 1.88, N. Hardt at 1.82. Pronocast's model had N. Hardt winning at 51 %.
When is the G. Villanueva – N. Hardt match?: On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 19:15, at the Antofagasta tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between G. Villanueva and N. Hardt?: Since 2020, G. Villanueva leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for G. Villanueva – N. Hardt?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions