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H. Barton vs P. Nesterov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
H. BartonP. Nesterov
57.9 %42.1 %
Model favourite
H. Barton
Probability
58 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · P. Nesterov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaQualifyingclay13:50
H. Barton
H. Barton
vs
P. Nesterov
P. Nesterov
1907
Elo
1893
1892
Elo on clay
1855
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
5
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.55
Odds
2.16

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

H. Barton
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
P. Nesterov
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
6 – 4
11 – 12
Sets won – lost
15 – 10
1 win
Current streak
1 win
35-25 (58%)
2026 record
25-15 (63%)
76-51 (60%)
Record on clay
31-24 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by H. Barton and P. Nesterov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (1907 against 1893): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On clay, the gap is 37 points in favour of H. Barton. H. Barton won 5 of the last ten matches, P. Nesterov won 5. H. Barton has 2 wins in the last five matches. P. Nesterov has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make H. Barton the favourite.

The model gave H. Barton the win at 58 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Nesterov won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

H. Barton's last five matches

P. Nesterov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, H. Barton beat S. Latinovic (6-3 7-5). To reach this round, P. Nesterov beat C. Chen (3-6 6-3 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, H. Barton wins 46 % (26 of 56), P. Nesterov 58 % (15 of 26). In deciding sets, H. Barton wins 57 % of the time (56 matches), P. Nesterov 52 % (29 matches). After losing the first set, H. Barton turned 25 % of matches around (72 occasions), P. Nesterov 21 % (39 occasions). After winning the first set, H. Barton went on to win 83 % of matches, P. Nesterov 89 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about H. Barton – P. Nesterov

Who is the favourite between H. Barton and P. Nesterov?
The match is over: P. Nesterov won 2-1. Bookmakers make H. Barton the favourite, priced at 1.55 against 2.16 for P. Nesterov. Pronocast's model had H. Barton winning at 58 %.
When is the H. Barton – P. Nesterov match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 13:50, at the Villena tournament (Qualifying, clay).
What is the head-to-head between H. Barton and P. Nesterov?
No meeting between H. Barton and P. Nesterov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for H. Barton – P. Nesterov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Villena

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026