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M. Alves vs J. Pereira prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. AlvesJ. Pereira
79.6 %20.4 %
Model favourite
M. Alves
Probability
80 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · J. Pereira

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerAntofagastaQualifyingclay16:30
M. Alves
M. Alves
vs
J. Pereira
J. Pereira
1838
Elo
1615
1821
Elo on clay
1613
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
8
Recent matches
7
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.14
Odds
4.12

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Alves
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
J. Pereira
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
9 – 15
Sets won – lost
13 – 12
1 win
Current streak
1 win
6-10 (38%)
2026 record
7-7 (50%)
86-79 (52%)
Record on clay
54-56 (49%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Alves and J. Pereira, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Alves comes in with an Elo of 1838, against 1615 for J. Pereira: a 223-point edge. On clay, the gap is 208 points in favour of M. Alves. M. Alves won 9 of the last ten matches, J. Pereira won 6. M. Alves has 3 wins in the last five matches. J. Pereira has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Alves leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Alves the favourite.

The model gave M. Alves the win at 80 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. Pereira won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Alves's last five matches

J. Pereira's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Alves leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Alves beat B. De La Pena (6-2 6-1). To reach this round, J. Pereira beat A. Huertas Del Pino Cordova (7-6 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Garin, who beat F. Diaz Acosta in the final (2-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Alves wins 48 % (35 of 73), J. Pereira 33 % (6 of 18). In deciding sets, M. Alves wins 39 % of the time (64 matches), J. Pereira 34 % (29 matches). After losing the first set, M. Alves turned 13 % of matches around (87 occasions), J. Pereira 11 % (54 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Alves went on to win 83 % of matches, J. Pereira 80 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Alves – J. Pereira

Who is the favourite between M. Alves and J. Pereira?
The match is over: J. Pereira won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Alves the favourite, priced at 1.14 against 4.12 for J. Pereira. Pronocast's model had M. Alves winning at 80 %.
When is the M. Alves – J. Pereira match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 16:30, at the Antofagasta tournament (Qualifying, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Alves and J. Pereira?
Since 2020, M. Alves leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Alves – J. Pereira?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Antofagasta

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026