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M. Erhard vs O. Tarvet prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. ErhardO. Tarvet
22.3 %77.7 %
Model favourite
O. Tarvet
Probability
78 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · O. Tarvet

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaQualifyingclay11:10
M. Erhard
M. Erhard
vs
O. Tarvet
O. Tarvet
1854
Elo
2098
1818
Elo on clay
2098
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
3
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
3.50
Odds
1.23

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Erhard
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
O. Tarvet
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
6 – 4
Wins – losses
8 – 2
16 – 9
Sets won – lost
18 – 8
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
24-21 (53%)
2026 record
13-5 (72%)
61-60 (50%)
Record on clay
–

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Erhard and O. Tarvet, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

O. Tarvet comes in with an Elo of 2098, against 1854 for M. Erhard: a 245-point edge. On clay, the gap is 280 points in favour of O. Tarvet. M. Erhard won 6 of the last ten matches, O. Tarvet won 8. M. Erhard has 2 wins in the last five matches. O. Tarvet has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make O. Tarvet the favourite.

The model gave O. Tarvet the win at 78 %, with a likely score of 2-0. O. Tarvet won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Erhard's last five matches

O. Tarvet's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Erhard's first match of the tournament. This is O. Tarvet's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Erhard wins 47 % (26 of 55), O. Tarvet 40 % (4 of 10). In deciding sets, M. Erhard wins 52 % of the time (54 matches), O. Tarvet 50 % (10 matches). After losing the first set, M. Erhard turned 20 % of matches around (83 occasions), O. Tarvet 15 % (13 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Erhard went on to win 84 % of matches, O. Tarvet 90 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Erhard – O. Tarvet

Who is the favourite between M. Erhard and O. Tarvet?
The match is over: O. Tarvet won 2-0. Bookmakers make O. Tarvet the favourite, priced at 1.23 against 3.50 for M. Erhard. Pronocast's model had O. Tarvet winning at 78 %.
When is the M. Erhard – O. Tarvet match?
On Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 11:10, at the Villena tournament (Qualifying, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Erhard and O. Tarvet?
No meeting between M. Erhard and O. Tarvet appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Erhard – O. Tarvet?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Villena

Tournament page

Other matches on 4 October 2026

All matches on 4 October 2026