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A. De Minaur vs C. Alcaraz prediction

AI prediction

Probability for members

The model has C. Alcaraz winning this match. Create a free account to see with what probability, and the most likely set score.

Predicted winner
C. Alcaraz
Probability
Members only
Likely score
Members only
See the probability and scoreFree during the beta

Every prediction is computed before the match and never edited afterwards: the model's real accuracy is published match by match.

ATPViennaFinalhard court
A. De Minaur
A. De Minaur
vs
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz

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Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. De Minaur
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
C. Alcaraz
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
8 – 2
18 – 6
Sets won – lost
18 – 8
3 wins
Current streak
2 wins
44-19 (70%)
2026 record
34-5 (87%)
153-79 (66%)
Record on hard court
161-39 (81%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. De Minaur and C. Alcaraz, before this match.

Recent matches

A. De Minaur's last five matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Alcaraz leads 6 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. De Minaur beat T. Machac (1-6 6-4 6-3), then L. Tien (6-4 6-2), then M. Berrettini (7-6 6-2). To reach this round, C. Alcaraz beat K. Khachanov (6-4 7-6), then N. Basilashvili (6-1 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat A. Zverev in the final (3-6 6-3 7-5).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. De Minaur wins 60 % (75 of 125), C. Alcaraz 61 % (97 of 159). In deciding sets, A. De Minaur wins 60 % of the time (104 matches), C. Alcaraz 74 % (93 matches). After losing the first set, A. De Minaur turned 30 % of matches around (141 occasions), C. Alcaraz 48 % (85 occasions). After winning the first set, A. De Minaur went on to win 88 % of matches, C. Alcaraz 95 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. De Minaur – C. Alcaraz

Who is the favourite between A. De Minaur and C. Alcaraz?
No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model has C. Alcaraz winning. The win probability and most likely score are for members before the match.
When is the A. De Minaur – C. Alcaraz match?
On Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 14:00, at the Vienna tournament (Final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. De Minaur and C. Alcaraz?
Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 6 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. De Minaur – C. Alcaraz?
In the Pronocast app, for members: probability of winning, most likely score and comparison with the odds. It will be published on this page with the result once the match is over.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Vienna

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 November 2026

All matches on 1 November 2026