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D. Rincon vs T. Droguet prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
D. RinconT. Droguet
27.6 %72.4 %
Model favourite
T. Droguet
Probability
72 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · T. Droguet

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerRennesRound of 16hard court20:35
D. Rincon
D. Rincon
vs
T. Droguet
T. Droguet
1935
Elo
2180
1867
Elo on hard court
2085
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
3
Recent matches
6
Edge
Head-to-head
–
3.38
Odds
1.24

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Rincon
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
T. Droguet
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
8 – 2
11 – 14
Sets won – lost
18 – 6
1 loss
Current streak
6 wins
19-19 (50%)
2026 record
42-19 (69%)
28-32 (47%)
Record on hard court
79-54 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Rincon and T. Droguet, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

T. Droguet comes in with an Elo of 2180, against 1935 for D. Rincon: a 245-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 218 points in favour of T. Droguet. D. Rincon won 4 of the last ten matches, T. Droguet won 8. D. Rincon has 2 wins in the last five matches. T. Droguet has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Rincon leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make T. Droguet the favourite.

The model gave T. Droguet the win at 72 %, with a likely score of 2-0. T. Droguet won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

D. Rincon's last five matches

T. Droguet's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Rincon leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is D. Rincon's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, T. Droguet beat M. Ribecai (7-6 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by H. Gaston, who beat S. Wawrinka in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Rincon wins 49 % (37 of 76), T. Droguet 57 % (63 of 111). In deciding sets, D. Rincon wins 59 % of the time (81 matches), T. Droguet 59 % (101 matches). After losing the first set, D. Rincon turned 21 % of matches around (122 occasions), T. Droguet 28 % (113 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Rincon went on to win 84 % of matches, T. Droguet 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Rincon – T. Droguet

Who is the favourite between D. Rincon and T. Droguet?
The match is over: T. Droguet won 2-1. Bookmakers make T. Droguet the favourite, priced at 1.24 against 3.38 for D. Rincon. Pronocast's model had T. Droguet winning at 72 %.
When is the D. Rincon – T. Droguet match?
On Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 20:35, at the Rennes tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between D. Rincon and T. Droguet?
Since 2020, D. Rincon leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Rincon – T. Droguet?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Rennes

Tournament page

Other matches on 17 September 2026

All matches on 17 September 2026