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M. Kostyuk vs T. Townsend prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Result not verified
M. KostyukT. Townsend
73.2 %26.8 %
Model favourite
M. Kostyuk
Probability
73 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
M. Kostyuk

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTAGuadalajaraRound of 16hard court01:00
M. Kostyuk
M. Kostyuk
vs
T. Townsend
T. Townsend
2486
Elo
2291
2289
Elo on hard court
2220
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
3
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.35
Odds
3.32

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Kostyuk
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
T. Townsend
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
7 – 3
16 – 8
Sets won – lost
15 – 9
1 loss
Current streak
1 win
36-9 (80%)
2026 record
22-13 (63%)
111-67 (62%)
Record on hard court
71-48 (60%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Kostyuk and T. Townsend, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Kostyuk comes in with an Elo of 2486, against 2291 for T. Townsend: a 195-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 68 points in favour of M. Kostyuk. M. Kostyuk won 7 of the last ten matches, T. Townsend won 7. M. Kostyuk has 3 wins in the last five matches. T. Townsend has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Kostyuk leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Kostyuk the favourite.

The model gave M. Kostyuk the win at 73 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Kostyuk won : prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Kostyuk's last five matches

T. Townsend's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Kostyuk leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Kostyuk's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, T. Townsend beat T. Maria (6-7 6-3 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by I. Jovic, who beat E. Arango in the final (6-4 6-1).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Kostyuk wins 55 % (39 of 71), T. Townsend 58 % (26 of 45). In deciding sets, M. Kostyuk wins 61 % of the time (92 matches), T. Townsend 54 % (59 matches). After losing the first set, M. Kostyuk turned 28 % of matches around (109 occasions), T. Townsend 28 % (78 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Kostyuk went on to win 86 % of matches, T. Townsend 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Kostyuk – T. Townsend

Who is the favourite between M. Kostyuk and T. Townsend?
The match is over: M. Kostyuk won. Bookmakers make M. Kostyuk the favourite, priced at 1.35 against 3.32 for T. Townsend. Pronocast's model had M. Kostyuk winning at 73 %.
When is the M. Kostyuk – T. Townsend match?
On Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 01:00, at the Guadalajara tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Kostyuk and T. Townsend?
Since 2020, M. Kostyuk leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Kostyuk – T. Townsend?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guadalajara

Tournament page

Other matches on 17 September 2026

All matches on 17 September 2026