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F. Maestrelli vs O. Tarvet prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
F. MaestrelliO. Tarvet
23.0 %77.0 %
Model favourite
O. Tarvet
Probability
77 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · O. Tarvet

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaRound of 32clay13:45
F. Maestrelli
F. Maestrelli
vs
O. Tarvet
O. Tarvet
1860
Elo
2123
1800
Elo on clay
2180
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
0
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
3.60
Odds
1.25

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

F. Maestrelli
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
O. Tarvet
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
9 – 1
11 – 14
Sets won – lost
19 – 5
2 losses
Current streak
2 wins
17-26 (40%)
2026 record
15-5 (75%)
79-85 (48%)
Record on clay
2-0 (100%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by F. Maestrelli and O. Tarvet, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

O. Tarvet comes in with an Elo of 2123, against 1860 for F. Maestrelli: a 263-point edge. On clay, the gap is 379 points in favour of O. Tarvet. F. Maestrelli won 4 of the last ten matches, O. Tarvet won 9. F. Maestrelli has 2 wins in the last five matches. O. Tarvet has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make O. Tarvet the favourite.

The model gave O. Tarvet the win at 77 %, with a likely score of 2-0. O. Tarvet won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

F. Maestrelli's last five matches

O. Tarvet's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is F. Maestrelli's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, O. Tarvet beat M. Erhard (6-4 6-3), then D. Dedura (6-3 7-5). In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, F. Maestrelli wins 54 % (60 of 112), O. Tarvet 40 % (4 of 10). In deciding sets, F. Maestrelli wins 55 % of the time (108 matches), O. Tarvet 50 % (10 matches). After losing the first set, F. Maestrelli turned 23 % of matches around (168 occasions), O. Tarvet 15 % (13 occasions). After winning the first set, F. Maestrelli went on to win 87 % of matches, O. Tarvet 91 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about F. Maestrelli – O. Tarvet

Who is the favourite between F. Maestrelli and O. Tarvet?
The match is over: O. Tarvet won 2-1. Bookmakers make O. Tarvet the favourite, priced at 1.25 against 3.60 for F. Maestrelli. Pronocast's model had O. Tarvet winning at 77 %.
When is the F. Maestrelli – O. Tarvet match?
On Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 13:45, at the Villena tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between F. Maestrelli and O. Tarvet?
No meeting between F. Maestrelli and O. Tarvet appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for F. Maestrelli – O. Tarvet?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Villena

Tournament page

Other matches on 7 October 2026

All matches on 7 October 2026