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P. Henning vs M. Kasnikowski prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
P. HenningM. Kasnikowski
45.2 %54.8 %
Model favourite
M. Kasnikowski
Probability
55 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · P. Henning

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaRound of 32clay14:30
P. Henning
P. Henning
vs
M. Kasnikowski
M. Kasnikowski
1901
Elo
1946
1814
Elo on clay
1919
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
7
Recent matches
0
–
Head-to-head
Edge
2.12
Odds
1.66

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

P. Henning
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
M. Kasnikowski
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
5 – 5
9 – 14
Sets won – lost
12 – 13
2 wins
Current streak
2 losses
18-14 (56%)
2026 record
34-24 (59%)
6-8 (43%)
Record on clay
51-46 (53%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by P. Henning and M. Kasnikowski, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Kasnikowski comes in with an Elo of 1946, against 1901 for P. Henning: a 45-point edge. On clay, the gap is 106 points in favour of M. Kasnikowski. P. Henning won 6 of the last ten matches, M. Kasnikowski won 5. P. Henning has 2 wins in the last five matches. M. Kasnikowski has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Kasnikowski leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Kasnikowski the favourite.

The model gave M. Kasnikowski the win at 55 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Henning won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

P. Henning's last five matches

M. Kasnikowski's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Kasnikowski leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, P. Henning beat T. Boogaard (6-2 6-7 6-3), then I. Marrero Curbelo (7-5 6-0). This is M. Kasnikowski's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, P. Henning wins 47 % (8 of 17), M. Kasnikowski 49 % (45 of 91). In deciding sets, P. Henning wins 38 % of the time (21 matches), M. Kasnikowski 48 % (82 matches). After losing the first set, P. Henning turned 13 % of matches around (31 occasions), M. Kasnikowski 26 % (88 occasions). After winning the first set, P. Henning went on to win 86 % of matches, M. Kasnikowski 76 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about P. Henning – M. Kasnikowski

Who is the favourite between P. Henning and M. Kasnikowski?
The match is over: P. Henning won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Kasnikowski the favourite, priced at 1.66 against 2.12 for P. Henning. Pronocast's model had M. Kasnikowski winning at 55 %.
When is the P. Henning – M. Kasnikowski match?
On Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 14:30, at the Villena tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between P. Henning and M. Kasnikowski?
Since 2020, M. Kasnikowski leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for P. Henning – M. Kasnikowski?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Villena

Tournament page

Other matches on 7 October 2026

All matches on 7 October 2026