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A. Holmgren vs P. Martinez prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
A. HolmgrenP. Martinez
52.9 %47.1 %
Model favourite
A. Holmgren
Probability
53 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · P. Martinez

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaRound of 32clay19:40
A. Holmgren
A. Holmgren
vs
P. Martinez
P. Martinez
1928
Elo
1953
1838
Elo on clay
1925
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
3
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.78
Odds
1.95

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Holmgren
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
P. Martinez
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
10 – 15
Sets won – lost
11 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
2 losses
28-29 (49%)
2026 record
28-28 (50%)
18-23 (44%)
Record on clay
110-95 (54%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Holmgren and P. Martinez, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Martinez comes in with an Elo of 1953, against 1928 for A. Holmgren: a 25-point edge. On clay, the gap is 87 points in favour of P. Martinez. A. Holmgren won 3 of the last ten matches, P. Martinez won 5. A. Holmgren has 2 wins in the last five matches. P. Martinez has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make A. Holmgren the favourite.

The model gave A. Holmgren the win at 53 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Martinez won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

A. Holmgren's last five matches

P. Martinez's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is A. Holmgren's first match of the tournament. This is P. Martinez's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Holmgren wins 60 % (65 of 108), P. Martinez 54 % (60 of 112). In deciding sets, A. Holmgren wins 46 % of the time (74 matches), P. Martinez 51 % (102 matches). After losing the first set, A. Holmgren turned 19 % of matches around (91 occasions), P. Martinez 14 % (165 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Holmgren went on to win 80 % of matches, P. Martinez 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Holmgren – P. Martinez

Who is the favourite between A. Holmgren and P. Martinez?
The match is over: P. Martinez won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Holmgren the favourite, priced at 1.78 against 1.95 for P. Martinez. Pronocast's model had A. Holmgren winning at 53 %.
When is the A. Holmgren – P. Martinez match?
On Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 19:40, at the Villena tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between A. Holmgren and P. Martinez?
No meeting between A. Holmgren and P. Martinez appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Holmgren – P. Martinez?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Villena

Tournament page

Other matches on 6 October 2026

All matches on 6 October 2026