A. Ilagan vs N. Basilashvili prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction

A. IlaganN. Basilashvili

36.8 %63.2 %

Model favourite: N. Basilashvili
Probability: 63 %
Predicted score: 0-2
Actual score: 1-2 · N. Basilashvili

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiQualifyinghard court06:10

A. Ilagan

N. Basilashvili

1957
Elo: 2045; 1914
Elo on hard court: 1983; 5 / 10
Form (last 10): 6 / 10; 4
Recent matches: 6; Even
Head-to-head: Even; 2.76
Odds: 1.40

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Ilagan

N. Basilashvili

5 – 5
Wins – losses: 6 – 4; 11 – 12
Sets won – lost: 14 – 9; 1 loss
Current streak: 1 loss; 30-23 (57%)
2026 record: 24-26 (48%); 75-65 (54%)
Record on hard court: 64-74 (46%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Ilagan and N. Basilashvili, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

N. Basilashvili comes in with an Elo of 2045, against 1957 for A. Ilagan: a 89-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 69 points in favour of N. Basilashvili. A. Ilagan won 5 of the last ten matches, N. Basilashvili won 6. A. Ilagan has 2 wins in the last five matches. N. Basilashvili has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make N. Basilashvili the favourite.

The model gave N. Basilashvili the win at 63 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Basilashvili won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Ilagan's last five matches

DL. HarrisJingshan 2026 · Quarter-final · 2 October 20265-7 1-6
VM. SharipovJingshan 2026 · Round of 16 · 1 October 20266-2 7-6
VM. DellavedovaJingshan 2026 · Round of 32 · 29 September 20266-4 6-3
DP. Bar BiryukovChengdu 2026 · Qualifying · 22 September 20266-7 6-7
DB. NakashimaTiburon 2026 · Round of 32 · 15 September 20265-7 7-6 6-7

N. Basilashvili's last five matches

DA. Davidovich FokinaChengdu 2026 · Semi-final · 28 September 20266-4 4-6 3-6
VJ. BrooksbyChengdu 2026 · Quarter-final · 27 September 20266-4 7-6
VB. Van De ZandschulpChengdu 2026 · Round of 16 · 25 September 20266-4 7-5
VM. KecmanovicChengdu 2026 · Round of 32 · 24 September 20267-6 6-4
VF. CinaChengdu 2026 · Qualifying · 23 September 20266-3 6-2

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is A. Ilagan's first match of the tournament. This is N. Basilashvili's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Ilagan wins 42 % (26 of 62), N. Basilashvili 55 % (58 of 105). In deciding sets, A. Ilagan wins 52 % of the time (52 matches), N. Basilashvili 54 % (91 matches). After losing the first set, A. Ilagan turned 23 % of matches around (69 occasions), N. Basilashvili 15 % (130 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Ilagan went on to win 83 % of matches, N. Basilashvili 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Ilagan – N. Basilashvili

Who is the favourite between A. Ilagan and N. Basilashvili?: The match is over: N. Basilashvili won 2-1. Bookmakers make N. Basilashvili the favourite, priced at 1.40 against 2.76 for A. Ilagan. Pronocast's model had N. Basilashvili winning at 63 %.
When is the A. Ilagan – N. Basilashvili match?: On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 06:10, at the Shanghai tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Ilagan and N. Basilashvili?: No meeting between A. Ilagan and N. Basilashvili appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Ilagan – N. Basilashvili?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions