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D. Medvedev vs T. Paul prediction

AI prediction

Probability for members

The model has D. Medvedev winning this match. Create a free account to see with what probability, and the most likely set score.

Predicted winner
D. Medvedev
Probability
Members only
Likely score
Members only
See the probability and scoreFree during the beta

Every prediction is computed before the match and never edited afterwards: the model's real accuracy is published match by match.

ATPShanghaiQuarter-finalhard court04:00
D. Medvedev
D. Medvedev
vs
T. Paul
T. Paul

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Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Medvedev
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
T. Paul
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
7 – 3
18 – 5
Sets won – lost
18 – 13
9 wins
Current streak
2 wins
43-16 (73%)
2026 record
40-18 (69%)
195-67 (74%)
Record on hard court
137-74 (65%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Medvedev and T. Paul, before this match.

Recent matches

D. Medvedev's last five matches

T. Paul's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Medvedev leads 3 to 1

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, D. Medvedev beat J-L. Struff (4-6 6-4 6-3), then D. Svrcina (6-2 6-3). To reach this round, T. Paul beat D. Vallejo (6-2 6-2), then V. Vacherot (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Medvedev wins 53 % (82 of 155), T. Paul 50 % (78 of 155). In deciding sets, D. Medvedev wins 59 % of the time (105 matches), T. Paul 61 % (116 matches). After losing the first set, D. Medvedev turned 34 % of matches around (120 occasions), T. Paul 31 % (131 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Medvedev went on to win 91 % of matches, T. Paul 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Medvedev – T. Paul

Who is the favourite between D. Medvedev and T. Paul?
No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model has D. Medvedev winning. The win probability and most likely score are for members before the match.
When is the D. Medvedev – T. Paul match?
On Friday, 16 October 2026 at 04:00, at the Shanghai tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between D. Medvedev and T. Paul?
Since 2020, D. Medvedev leads 3 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Medvedev – T. Paul?
In the Pronocast app, for members: probability of winning, most likely score and comparison with the odds. It will be published on this page with the result once the match is over.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 16 October 2026

All matches on 16 October 2026