C. McNally vs D. Yastremska prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction

C. McNallyD. Yastremska

60.9 %39.1 %

Model favourite: C. McNally
Probability: 61 %
Predicted score: 2-0
Actual score: 0-2 · D. Yastremska

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 128hard court05:10

C. McNally

D. Yastremska

2232
Elo: 2089; 2048
Elo on hard court: 1952; 6 / 10
Form (last 10): 3 / 10; 0
Recent matches: 0; –
Head-to-head: Edge; 1.46
Odds: 2.35

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. McNally

D. Yastremska

6 – 4
Wins – losses: 3 – 7; 14 – 10
Sets won – lost: 10 – 15; 1 loss
Current streak: 4 losses; 26-21 (55%)
2026 record: 16-20 (44%); 58-55 (51%)
Record on hard court: 74-73 (50%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. McNally and D. Yastremska, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. McNally comes in with an Elo of 2232, against 2089 for D. Yastremska: a 143-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 96 points in favour of C. McNally. C. McNally won 6 of the last ten matches, D. Yastremska won 3. C. McNally has 2 wins in the last five matches. D. Yastremska has one win in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Yastremska leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make C. McNally the favourite.

The model gave C. McNally the win at 61 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Yastremska won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

C. McNally's last five matches

DE. NavarroUS Open 2026 · Round of 64 · 2 September 20266-3 2-6 3-6
VA. KoevermansUS Open 2026 · Round of 128 · 31 August 20267-5 6-1
DA. KalinskayaCincinnati 2026 · Round of 64 · 15 August 20263-6 4-6
VM. KesslerCincinnati 2026 · Round of 128 · 14 August 20266-3 6-4
DA. EalaToronto 2026 · Round of 32 · 8 August 20263-6 7-5 4-6

D. Yastremska's last five matches

DL. StefaniniUS Open 2026 · Round of 128 · 30 August 20263-6 6-4 1-6
DJ. TjenMonterrey 2026 · Round of 32 · 25 August 20266-2 3-6 6-7
DT. MariaCincinnati 2026 · Round of 128 · 13 August 20261-6 2-6
DJ. Bouzas ManeiroWimbledon 2026 · Round of 64 · 1 July 20263-6 7-6 2-6
VA. ItoWimbledon 2026 · Round of 128 · 29 June 20267-6 4-6 7-5

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Yastremska leads 2 to 0

DD. YastremskaWTA Miami 2023 · Qualifying · 19 March 20233-6 7-6 3-6
DD. YastremskaCincinnati 2021 · Round of 64 · 18 August 20216-7 6-7

Road through the tournament

This is C. McNally's first match of the tournament. This is D. Yastremska's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. McNally wins 57 % (24 of 42), D. Yastremska 60 % (49 of 81). In deciding sets, C. McNally wins 45 % of the time (74 matches), D. Yastremska 48 % (94 matches). After losing the first set, C. McNally turned 21 % of matches around (75 occasions), D. Yastremska 19 % (113 occasions). After winning the first set, C. McNally went on to win 76 % of matches, D. Yastremska 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. McNally – D. Yastremska

Who is the favourite between C. McNally and D. Yastremska?: The match is over: D. Yastremska won 2-0. Bookmakers make C. McNally the favourite, priced at 1.46 against 2.35 for D. Yastremska. Pronocast's model had C. McNally winning at 61 %.
When is the C. McNally – D. Yastremska match?: On Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 05:10, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. McNally and D. Yastremska?: Since 2020, D. Yastremska leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. McNally – D. Yastremska?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions