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E. Mertens vs I. Swiatek prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
E. MertensI. Swiatek
21.0 %79.0 %
Model favourite
I. Swiatek
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · E. Mertens

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingQuarter-finalhard court13:10
E. Mertens
E. Mertens
vs
I. Swiatek
I. Swiatek
2327
Elo
2529
2188
Elo on hard court
2429
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
3
–
Head-to-head
Edge
4.21
Odds
1.22

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

E. Mertens
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
I. Swiatek
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
8 – 2
16 – 9
Sets won – lost
17 – 6
3 wins
Current streak
3 wins
32-19 (63%)
2026 record
38-13 (75%)
118-77 (61%)
Record on hard court
185-47 (80%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by E. Mertens and I. Swiatek, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

I. Swiatek comes in with an Elo of 2529, against 2327 for E. Mertens: a 202-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 240 points in favour of I. Swiatek. E. Mertens won 7 of the last ten matches, I. Swiatek won 8. E. Mertens has 3 wins in the last five matches. I. Swiatek has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, I. Swiatek leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make I. Swiatek the favourite.

The model gave I. Swiatek the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 2-0. E. Mertens won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

E. Mertens's last five matches

I. Swiatek's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

I. Swiatek leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, E. Mertens beat K. Volynets (6-0 4-6 7-5), then J. Ostapenko (6-2 3-6 6-3), then C. Gauff (6-3 6-3). To reach this round, I. Swiatek beat X. Gao (6-2 6-3), then D. Vekic (4-6 7-6 6-2), then I. Jovic (6-1 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, E. Mertens wins 53 % (31 of 58), I. Swiatek 61 % (36 of 59). In deciding sets, E. Mertens wins 50 % of the time (86 matches), I. Swiatek 63 % (84 matches). After losing the first set, E. Mertens turned 23 % of matches around (118 occasions), I. Swiatek 37 % (82 occasions). After winning the first set, E. Mertens went on to win 85 % of matches, I. Swiatek 94 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about E. Mertens – I. Swiatek

Who is the favourite between E. Mertens and I. Swiatek?
The match is over: E. Mertens won 2-0. Bookmakers make I. Swiatek the favourite, priced at 1.22 against 4.21 for E. Mertens. Pronocast's model had I. Swiatek winning at 79 %.
When is the E. Mertens – I. Swiatek match?
On Friday, 9 October 2026 at 13:10, at the Beijing tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between E. Mertens and I. Swiatek?
Since 2020, I. Swiatek leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for E. Mertens – I. Swiatek?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 9 October 2026

All matches on 9 October 2026