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C. Ugo Carabelli vs F. Auger-Aliassime prediction

AI prediction

Probability for members

The model has F. Auger-Aliassime winning this match. Create a free account to see with what probability, and the most likely set score.

Predicted winner
F. Auger-Aliassime
Probability
Members only
Likely score
Members only
See the probability and scoreFree during the beta

Every prediction is computed before the match and never edited afterwards: the model's real accuracy is published match by match.

ATPShanghaiRound of 64hard court06:00
C. Ugo Carabelli
C. Ugo Carabelli
vs
F. Auger-Aliassime
F. Auger-Aliassime
11.71
Odds
1.03

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Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Ugo Carabelli
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
F. Auger-Aliassime
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
3 – 7
Wins – losses
6 – 4
8 – 17
Sets won – lost
17 – 15
1 win
Current streak
1 loss
22-22 (50%)
2026 record
34-16 (68%)
21-31 (40%)
Record on hard court
152-79 (66%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Ugo Carabelli and F. Auger-Aliassime, before this match.

Recent matches

C. Ugo Carabelli's last five matches

F. Auger-Aliassime's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

F. Auger-Aliassime leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, C. Ugo Carabelli beat I. Simakin (2-6 6-2 7-5). This is F. Auger-Aliassime's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Ugo Carabelli wins 52 % (58 of 111), F. Auger-Aliassime 61 % (126 of 208). In deciding sets, C. Ugo Carabelli wins 66 % of the time (117 matches), F. Auger-Aliassime 62 % (108 matches). After losing the first set, C. Ugo Carabelli turned 27 % of matches around (157 occasions), F. Auger-Aliassime 32 % (147 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Ugo Carabelli went on to win 90 % of matches, F. Auger-Aliassime 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Ugo Carabelli – F. Auger-Aliassime

Who is the favourite between C. Ugo Carabelli and F. Auger-Aliassime?
Bookmakers make F. Auger-Aliassime the favourite, priced at 1.03 against 11.71 for C. Ugo Carabelli. Pronocast's model has F. Auger-Aliassime winning. The win probability and most likely score are for members before the match.
When is the C. Ugo Carabelli – F. Auger-Aliassime match?
On Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 06:00, at the Shanghai tournament (Round of 64, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Ugo Carabelli and F. Auger-Aliassime?
Since 2020, F. Auger-Aliassime leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Ugo Carabelli – F. Auger-Aliassime?
In the Pronocast app, for members: probability of winning, most likely score and comparison with the odds. It will be published on this page with the result once the match is over.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 10 October 2026

All matches on 10 October 2026