D. Rincon vs P. Martinez prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction

D. RinconP. Martinez

54.6 %45.4 %

Model favourite: D. Rincon
Probability: 55 %
Predicted score: 2-0
Actual score: 0-2 · P. Martinez

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaRound of 16clay20:05

D. Rincon

P. Martinez

1953
Elo: 1964; 1925
Elo on clay: 1936; 5 / 10
Form (last 10): 5 / 10; 4
Recent matches: 1; Edge
Head-to-head: –; 1.70
Odds: 2.03

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Rincon

P. Martinez

5 – 5
Wins – losses: 6 – 4; 12 – 10
Sets won – lost: 13 – 10; 1 win
Current streak: 1 win; 22-22 (50%)
2026 record: 29-28 (51%); 83-79 (51%)
Record on clay: 111-95 (54%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Rincon and P. Martinez, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (1953 against 1964): nothing separates them in the model's rating. D. Rincon won 5 of the last ten matches, P. Martinez won 5. D. Rincon has 3 wins in the last five matches. P. Martinez has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each. Bookmakers make D. Rincon the favourite.

The model gave D. Rincon the win at 55 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Martinez won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

D. Rincon's last five matches

VA. Sanchez QuilezVillena 2026 · Round of 32 · 5 October 20266-2 6-4
DD. Jorda SanchisPorto 2026 · Quarter-final · 2 October 20263-6 4-6
VL. DjerePorto 2026 · Round of 16 · 1 October 20267-6 6-4
VF. TabaccoPorto 2026 · Round of 32 · 29 September 20266-1 6-1
DD. PrizmicSt. Tropez 2026 · Round of 32 · 22 September 20264-6 3-6

P. Martinez's last five matches

VA. HolmgrenVillena 2026 · Round of 32 · 6 October 20262-6 7-6 7-5
DE. RibeiroBuenos Aires 3 2026 · Round of 32 · 22 September 20266-7 3-6
DT. Seyboth WildGenova 2026 · Final · 13 September 20264-6 2-6
VL. DjereGenova 2026 · Semi-final · 12 September 20262-6 6-4 7-5
VV. AboianGenova 2026 · Quarter-final · 11 September 20266-1 6-2

Head-to-head since 2020

Level, 1 win(s) each

VP. MartinezParma 2026 · Round of 32 · 16 June 20267-6 7-6
DP. MartinezBlois Challenger Men 2023 · Round of 32 · 20 June 20233-6 3-6

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, D. Rincon beat A. Sanchez Quilez (6-2 6-4). To reach this round, P. Martinez beat A. Holmgren (2-6 7-6 7-5). In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Rincon wins 49 % (38 of 77), P. Martinez 54 % (61 of 113). In deciding sets, D. Rincon wins 59 % of the time (82 matches), P. Martinez 51 % (103 matches). After losing the first set, D. Rincon turned 21 % of matches around (124 occasions), P. Martinez 14 % (166 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Rincon went on to win 83 % of matches, P. Martinez 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Rincon – P. Martinez

Who is the favourite between D. Rincon and P. Martinez?: The match is over: P. Martinez won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Rincon the favourite, priced at 1.70 against 2.03 for P. Martinez. Pronocast's model had D. Rincon winning at 55 %.
When is the D. Rincon – P. Martinez match?: On Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 20:05, at the Villena tournament (Round of 16, clay).
What is the head-to-head between D. Rincon and P. Martinez?: Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Rincon – P. Martinez?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions