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H. Gaston vs L. Draxl prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
H. GastonL. Draxl
61.4 %38.6 %
Model favourite
H. Gaston
Probability
61 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · L. Draxl

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiQualifyinghard court06:10
H. Gaston
H. Gaston
vs
L. Draxl
L. Draxl
2074
Elo
1988
2009
Elo on hard court
1918
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
3
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

H. Gaston
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
L. Draxl
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
6 – 4
Wins – losses
5 – 5
14 – 11
Sets won – lost
13 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
28-25 (53%)
2026 record
31-22 (58%)
88-83 (51%)
Record on hard court
80-56 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by H. Gaston and L. Draxl, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Gaston comes in with an Elo of 2074, against 1988 for L. Draxl: a 86-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 91 points in favour of H. Gaston. H. Gaston won 6 of the last ten matches, L. Draxl won 5. H. Gaston has 3 wins in the last five matches. L. Draxl has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave H. Gaston the win at 61 %, with a likely score of 2-0. L. Draxl won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

H. Gaston's last five matches

L. Draxl's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is H. Gaston's first match of the tournament. This is L. Draxl's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, H. Gaston wins 60 % (70 of 116), L. Draxl 50 % (35 of 70). In deciding sets, H. Gaston wins 54 % of the time (126 matches), L. Draxl 62 % (74 matches). After losing the first set, H. Gaston turned 24 % of matches around (160 occasions), L. Draxl 24 % (85 occasions). After winning the first set, H. Gaston went on to win 78 % of matches, L. Draxl 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about H. Gaston – L. Draxl

Who is the favourite between H. Gaston and L. Draxl?
The match is over: L. Draxl won 2-0. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had H. Gaston winning at 61 %.
When is the H. Gaston – L. Draxl match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 06:10, at the Shanghai tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between H. Gaston and L. Draxl?
No meeting between H. Gaston and L. Draxl appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for H. Gaston – L. Draxl?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026