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I. Marrero Curbelo vs L. Potenza prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
I. Marrero CurbeloL. Potenza
37.4 %62.6 %
Model favourite
L. Potenza
Probability
63 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · L. Potenza

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoQualifyinghard court18:30
I. Marrero Curbelo
I. Marrero Curbelo
vs
L. Potenza
L. Potenza
1791
Elo
1739
1754
Elo on hard court
1699
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
0
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.34
Odds
1.53

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

I. Marrero Curbelo
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
L. Potenza
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
5 – 5
Wins – losses
5 – 5
11 – 14
Sets won – lost
14 – 12
1 loss
Current streak
3 losses
16-14 (53%)
2026 record
11-14 (44%)
17-18 (49%)
Record on hard court
27-27 (50%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by I. Marrero Curbelo and L. Potenza, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

I. Marrero Curbelo comes in with an Elo of 1791, against 1739 for L. Potenza: a 53-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 55 points in favour of I. Marrero Curbelo. I. Marrero Curbelo won 5 of the last ten matches, L. Potenza won 5. I. Marrero Curbelo has 2 wins in the last five matches. L. Potenza has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make L. Potenza the favourite.

The model gave L. Potenza the win at 63 %, with a likely score of 2-0. L. Potenza won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

I. Marrero Curbelo's last five matches

L. Potenza's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is I. Marrero Curbelo's first match of the tournament. This is L. Potenza's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, I. Marrero Curbelo wins 36 % (5 of 14), L. Potenza 42 % (16 of 38). In deciding sets, I. Marrero Curbelo wins 43 % of the time (21 matches), L. Potenza 55 % (33 matches). After losing the first set, I. Marrero Curbelo turned 19 % of matches around (26 occasions), L. Potenza 18 % (56 occasions). After winning the first set, I. Marrero Curbelo went on to win 71 % of matches, L. Potenza 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about I. Marrero Curbelo – L. Potenza

Who is the favourite between I. Marrero Curbelo and L. Potenza?
The match is over: L. Potenza won 2-1. Bookmakers make L. Potenza the favourite, priced at 1.53 against 2.34 for I. Marrero Curbelo. Pronocast's model had L. Potenza winning at 63 %.
When is the I. Marrero Curbelo – L. Potenza match?
On Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 18:30, at the Porto tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between I. Marrero Curbelo and L. Potenza?
No meeting between I. Marrero Curbelo and L. Potenza appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for I. Marrero Curbelo – L. Potenza?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 27 September 2026

All matches on 27 September 2026