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A. Holmgren vs H. Rocha prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. HolmgrenH. Rocha
36.2 %63.8 %
Model favourite
H. Rocha
Probability
64 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · H. Rocha

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoQuarter-finalhard court14:05
A. Holmgren
A. Holmgren
vs
H. Rocha
H. Rocha
1939
Elo
2043
1884
Elo on hard court
1959
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
2
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.63
Odds
1.35

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Holmgren
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
H. Rocha
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
6 – 4
12 – 13
Sets won – lost
15 – 8
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
28-28 (50%)
2026 record
31-23 (57%)
84-61 (58%)
Record on hard court
30-22 (58%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Holmgren and H. Rocha, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Rocha comes in with an Elo of 2043, against 1939 for A. Holmgren: a 104-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 75 points in favour of H. Rocha. A. Holmgren won 4 of the last ten matches, H. Rocha won 6. A. Holmgren has 2 wins in the last five matches. H. Rocha has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make H. Rocha the favourite.

The model gave H. Rocha the win at 64 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Rocha won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Holmgren's last five matches

H. Rocha's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Holmgren beat B. Bonzi (6-3 6-4), then A. Guerrieri (7-5 6-1). To reach this round, H. Rocha beat C. Cretu (7-5 6-3), then M. Poljicak (6-2 6-0). In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Holmgren wins 61 % (65 of 107), H. Rocha 53 % (42 of 79). In deciding sets, A. Holmgren wins 46 % of the time (74 matches), H. Rocha 49 % (63 matches). After losing the first set, A. Holmgren turned 19 % of matches around (90 occasions), H. Rocha 15 % (95 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Holmgren went on to win 80 % of matches, H. Rocha 82 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Holmgren – H. Rocha

Who is the favourite between A. Holmgren and H. Rocha?
The match is over: H. Rocha won 2-0. Bookmakers make H. Rocha the favourite, priced at 1.35 against 2.63 for A. Holmgren. Pronocast's model had H. Rocha winning at 64 %.
When is the A. Holmgren – H. Rocha match?
On Friday, 2 October 2026 at 14:05, at the Porto tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Holmgren and H. Rocha?
No meeting between A. Holmgren and H. Rocha appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Holmgren – H. Rocha?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 2 October 2026

All matches on 2 October 2026