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J. Ostapenko vs E. Mertens prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
J. OstapenkoE. Mertens
40.1 %59.9 %
Model favourite
E. Mertens
Probability
60 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · E. Mertens

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 32hard court10:40
J. Ostapenko
J. Ostapenko
vs
E. Mertens
E. Mertens
2232
Elo
2286
2051
Elo on hard court
2141
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
3
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.46
Odds
1.54

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

J. Ostapenko
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
E. Mertens
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 10
Sets won – lost
15 – 11
1 win
Current streak
1 win
23-16 (59%)
2026 record
30-19 (61%)
89-68 (57%)
Record on hard court
116-77 (60%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by J. Ostapenko and E. Mertens, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

E. Mertens comes in with an Elo of 2286, against 2232 for J. Ostapenko: a 54-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 90 points in favour of E. Mertens. J. Ostapenko won 6 of the last ten matches, E. Mertens won 6. J. Ostapenko has 2 wins in the last five matches. E. Mertens has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make E. Mertens the favourite.

The model gave E. Mertens the win at 60 %, with a likely score of 2-0. E. Mertens won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

J. Ostapenko's last five matches

E. Mertens's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, J. Ostapenko beat P. Badosa (7-6 7-5). To reach this round, E. Mertens beat K. Volynets (6-0 4-6 7-5). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, J. Ostapenko wins 52 % (26 of 50), E. Mertens 53 % (31 of 58). In deciding sets, J. Ostapenko wins 61 % of the time (97 matches), E. Mertens 49 % (85 matches). After losing the first set, J. Ostapenko turned 31 % of matches around (104 occasions), E. Mertens 23 % (118 occasions). After winning the first set, J. Ostapenko went on to win 82 % of matches, E. Mertens 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about J. Ostapenko – E. Mertens

Who is the favourite between J. Ostapenko and E. Mertens?
The match is over: E. Mertens won 2-1. Bookmakers make E. Mertens the favourite, priced at 1.54 against 2.46 for J. Ostapenko. Pronocast's model had E. Mertens winning at 60 %.
When is the J. Ostapenko – E. Mertens match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 10:40, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between J. Ostapenko and E. Mertens?
No meeting between J. Ostapenko and E. Mertens appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for J. Ostapenko – E. Mertens?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026