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L. Pavlovic vs I. Simakin prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
L. PavlovicI. Simakin
36.0 %64.0 %
Model favourite
I. Simakin
Probability
64 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · I. Simakin

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiQualifyinghard court08:30
L. Pavlovic
L. Pavlovic
vs
I. Simakin
I. Simakin
1909
Elo
2045
1885
Elo on hard court
2032
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
10 / 10
3
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.67
Odds
1.42

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Pavlovic
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
I. Simakin
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
10 – 0
11 – 14
Sets won – lost
20 – 4
1 loss
Current streak
15 wins
25-24 (51%)
2026 record
38-15 (72%)
15-13 (54%)
Record on hard court
71-30 (70%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Pavlovic and I. Simakin, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

I. Simakin comes in with an Elo of 2045, against 1909 for L. Pavlovic: a 136-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 147 points in favour of I. Simakin. L. Pavlovic won 4 of the last ten matches, I. Simakin won 10. L. Pavlovic has 2 wins in the last five matches. I. Simakin has 5 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make I. Simakin the favourite.

The model gave I. Simakin the win at 64 %, with a likely score of 2-0. I. Simakin won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

L. Pavlovic's last five matches

I. Simakin's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is L. Pavlovic's first match of the tournament. This is I. Simakin's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Pavlovic wins 58 % (34 of 59), I. Simakin 55 % (26 of 47). In deciding sets, L. Pavlovic wins 56 % of the time (39 matches), I. Simakin 65 % (48 matches). After losing the first set, L. Pavlovic turned 19 % of matches around (53 occasions), I. Simakin 40 % (48 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Pavlovic went on to win 85 % of matches, I. Simakin 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Pavlovic – I. Simakin

Who is the favourite between L. Pavlovic and I. Simakin?
The match is over: I. Simakin won 2-1. Bookmakers make I. Simakin the favourite, priced at 1.42 against 2.67 for L. Pavlovic. Pronocast's model had I. Simakin winning at 64 %.
When is the L. Pavlovic – I. Simakin match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 08:30, at the Shanghai tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Pavlovic and I. Simakin?
No meeting between L. Pavlovic and I. Simakin appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Pavlovic – I. Simakin?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026