L. Sonego vs A. Dougaz prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction

L. SonegoA. Dougaz

77.3 %22.7 %

Model favourite: L. Sonego
Probability: 77 %
Predicted score: 2-0
Actual score: 1-2 · A. Dougaz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiQualifyinghard court06:10

L. Sonego

A. Dougaz

2056
Elo: 1924; 1992
Elo on hard court: 1903; 4 / 10
Form (last 10): 8 / 10; 3
Recent matches: 1; Even
Head-to-head: Even; 1.22
Odds: 3.92

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Sonego

A. Dougaz

4 – 6
Wins – losses: 7 – 3; 12 – 14
Sets won – lost: 16 – 10; 2 losses
Current streak: 1 win; 13-20 (39%)
2026 record: 12-10 (55%); 79-88 (47%)
Record on hard court: 61-65 (48%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Sonego and A. Dougaz, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

L. Sonego comes in with an Elo of 2056, against 1924 for A. Dougaz: a 131-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 89 points in favour of L. Sonego. L. Sonego won 4 of the last ten matches, A. Dougaz won 8. L. Sonego has one win in the last five matches. A. Dougaz has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make L. Sonego the favourite.

The model gave L. Sonego the win at 77 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Dougaz won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

L. Sonego's last five matches

DK. MajchrzakTokyo 2026 · Qualifying · 28 September 20265-7 2-6
DJ. BrooksbyChengdu 2026 · Round of 16 · 25 September 20267-5 5-7 2-6
VJ. DuckworthChengdu 2026 · Round of 32 · 24 September 20266-4 6-4
DF. PassaroGenova 2026 · Round of 32 · 8 September 20266-3 4-6 4-6
DA. ZverevUS Open 2026 · Round of 128 · 2 September 20264-6 6-3 7-6 5-7 4-6

A. Dougaz's last five matches

VM. ShoaibATP Davis Cup - World Group II 2026 · 18 September 20266-2 6-3
DA. GuerrieriUS Open 2026 · Qualifying · 27 August 20262-6 4-6
VK. JacquetUS Open 2026 · Qualifying · 26 August 20266-4 4-6 6-4
VF. A. GomezUS Open 2026 · Qualifying · 24 August 20266-4 6-2
DH. MatsuokaAstana 2026 · Final · 16 August 20266-0 1-6 6-7

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is L. Sonego's first match of the tournament. This is A. Dougaz's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Sonego wins 53 % (78 of 147), A. Dougaz 37 % (27 of 73). In deciding sets, L. Sonego wins 45 % of the time (102 matches), A. Dougaz 40 % (72 matches). After losing the first set, L. Sonego turned 21 % of matches around (148 occasions), A. Dougaz 14 % (100 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Sonego went on to win 75 % of matches, A. Dougaz 74 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Sonego – A. Dougaz

Who is the favourite between L. Sonego and A. Dougaz?: The match is over: A. Dougaz won 2-1. Bookmakers make L. Sonego the favourite, priced at 1.22 against 3.92 for A. Dougaz. Pronocast's model had L. Sonego winning at 77 %.
When is the L. Sonego – A. Dougaz match?: On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 06:10, at the Shanghai tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Sonego and A. Dougaz?: No meeting between L. Sonego and A. Dougaz appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Sonego – A. Dougaz?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions