L. Xiao vs F. Cina prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction

L. XiaoF. Cina

6.9 %93.1 %

Model favourite: F. Cina
Probability: 93 %
Predicted score: 0-2
Actual score: 1-2 · F. Cina

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiQualifyinghard court06:15

L. Xiao

F. Cina

1543
Elo: 1978; 1525
Elo on hard court: 1905; 2 / 10
Form (last 10): 5 / 10; 0
Recent matches: 7; Even
Head-to-head: Even; 9.47
Odds: 1.03

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Xiao

F. Cina

2 – 8
Wins – losses: 5 – 5; 8 – 16
Sets won – lost: 10 – 13; 2 losses
Current streak: 1 win; 1-6 (14%)
2026 record: 32-24 (57%); 12-28 (30%)
Record on hard court: 38-29 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Xiao and F. Cina, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

F. Cina comes in with an Elo of 1978, against 1543 for L. Xiao: a 436-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 380 points in favour of F. Cina. L. Xiao won 2 of the last ten matches, F. Cina won 5. L. Xiao has one win in the last five matches. F. Cina has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make F. Cina the favourite.

The model gave F. Cina the win at 93 %, with a likely score of 2-0. F. Cina won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

L. Xiao's last five matches

DC. SinclairGuangzhou 2 2026 · Round of 32 · 14 September 20264-6 6-1 6-7
DA. GalarneauShanghai 2026 · Round of 16 · 9 September 20263-6 4-6
VK. UchidaShanghai 2026 · Round of 32 · 7 September 20266-3 7-5
DA. IlaganWuxi 2026 · Qualifying · 3 May 20263-6 7-6 3-6
DB. EllisWuning 2 (China) - Qualification 2026 · Round of 32 · 14 April 20266-4 6-7 4-6

F. Cina's last five matches

VE. YmerJingshan 2026 · Round of 16 · 2 October 20263-6 6-3 6-4
DY. ErelJingshan 2026 · Quarter-final · 2 October 20265-7 6-7
VJ. McCabeJingshan 2026 · Round of 32 · 30 September 20266-2 6-3
DA. MullerChengdu 2026 · Round of 16 · 26 September 20266-7 1-6
VC. Ugo CarabelliChengdu 2026 · Round of 32 · 24 September 20266-3 6-2

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is L. Xiao's first match of the tournament. This is F. Cina's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Xiao wins 58 % (7 of 12), F. Cina 44 % (17 of 39). In deciding sets, L. Xiao wins 23 % of the time (13 matches), F. Cina 50 % (36 matches). After losing the first set, L. Xiao turned 4 % of matches around (25 occasions), F. Cina 15 % (54 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Xiao went on to win 73 % of matches, F. Cina 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Xiao – F. Cina

Who is the favourite between L. Xiao and F. Cina?: The match is over: F. Cina won 2-1. Bookmakers make F. Cina the favourite, priced at 1.03 against 9.47 for L. Xiao. Pronocast's model had F. Cina winning at 93 %.
When is the L. Xiao – F. Cina match?: On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 06:15, at the Shanghai tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Xiao and F. Cina?: No meeting between L. Xiao and F. Cina appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Xiao – F. Cina?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions