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M. Damm vs P. Kotov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. DammP. Kotov
67.7 %32.3 %
Model favourite
M. Damm
Probability
68 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · P. Kotov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiQualifyinghard court10:25
M. Damm
M. Damm
vs
P. Kotov
P. Kotov
2099
Elo
2008
2004
Elo on hard court
2017
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
3
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.40
Odds
2.76

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Damm
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
P. Kotov
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
7 – 3
13 – 13
Sets won – lost
14 – 8
2 losses
Current streak
1 loss
30-26 (54%)
2026 record
28-10 (74%)
69-59 (54%)
Record on hard court
97-75 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Damm and P. Kotov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Damm comes in with an Elo of 2099, against 2008 for P. Kotov: a 91-point edge. M. Damm won 4 of the last ten matches, P. Kotov won 7. M. Damm has one win in the last five matches. P. Kotov has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Damm the favourite.

The model gave M. Damm the win at 68 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Kotov won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Damm's last five matches

P. Kotov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Damm's first match of the tournament. This is P. Kotov's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Damm wins 51 % (59 of 116), P. Kotov 55 % (73 of 132). In deciding sets, M. Damm wins 38 % of the time (66 matches), P. Kotov 55 % (102 matches). After losing the first set, M. Damm turned 18 % of matches around (71 occasions), P. Kotov 24 % (139 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Damm went on to win 74 % of matches, P. Kotov 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Damm – P. Kotov

Who is the favourite between M. Damm and P. Kotov?
The match is over: P. Kotov won 2-1. Bookmakers make M. Damm the favourite, priced at 1.40 against 2.76 for P. Kotov. Pronocast's model had M. Damm winning at 68 %.
When is the M. Damm – P. Kotov match?
On Monday, 5 October 2026 at 10:25, at the Shanghai tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Damm and P. Kotov?
No meeting between M. Damm and P. Kotov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Damm – P. Kotov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 5 October 2026

All matches on 5 October 2026