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M. Echargui vs D. Dzumhur prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. EcharguiD. Dzumhur
41.3 %58.7 %
Model favourite
D. Dzumhur
Probability
59 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · M. Echargui

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoRound of 32hard court18:10
M. Echargui
M. Echargui
vs
D. Dzumhur
D. Dzumhur
1857
Elo
2035
1833
Elo on hard court
1873
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
4
Recent matches
1
–
Head-to-head
Edge
2.20
Odds
1.60

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Echargui
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
D. Dzumhur
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 12
Sets won – lost
15 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
1 win
16-31 (34%)
2026 record
19-25 (43%)
43-47 (48%)
Record on hard court
74-77 (49%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Echargui and D. Dzumhur, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Dzumhur comes in with an Elo of 2035, against 1857 for M. Echargui: a 178-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 40 points in favour of D. Dzumhur. M. Echargui won 5 of the last ten matches, D. Dzumhur won 6. M. Echargui has 3 wins in the last five matches. D. Dzumhur has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Dzumhur leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Dzumhur the favourite.

The model gave D. Dzumhur the win at 59 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Echargui won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Echargui's last five matches

D. Dzumhur's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Dzumhur leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Echargui's first match of the tournament. This is D. Dzumhur's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2). M. Echargui is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Echargui wins 51 % (40 of 78), D. Dzumhur 49 % (53 of 108). In deciding sets, M. Echargui wins 41 % of the time (81 matches), D. Dzumhur 55 % (117 matches). After losing the first set, M. Echargui turned 15 % of matches around (102 occasions), D. Dzumhur 20 % (174 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Echargui went on to win 77 % of matches, D. Dzumhur 87 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Echargui – D. Dzumhur

Who is the favourite between M. Echargui and D. Dzumhur?
The match is over: M. Echargui won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Dzumhur the favourite, priced at 1.60 against 2.20 for M. Echargui. Pronocast's model had D. Dzumhur winning at 59 %.
When is the M. Echargui – D. Dzumhur match?
On Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 18:10, at the Porto tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Echargui and D. Dzumhur?
Since 2020, D. Dzumhur leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Echargui – D. Dzumhur?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 30 September 2026

All matches on 30 September 2026