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M. Geerts vs V. Orlov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. GeertsV. Orlov
72.1 %27.9 %
Model favourite
M. Geerts
Probability
72 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · M. Geerts

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerPortoQualifyinghard court20:30
M. Geerts
M. Geerts
vs
V. Orlov
V. Orlov
1836
Elo
1760
1835
Elo on hard court
1536
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
1
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.33
Odds
3.00

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Geerts
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
V. Orlov
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
9 – 16
Sets won – lost
14 – 11
3 losses
Current streak
1 loss
10-15 (40%)
2026 record
9-9 (50%)
81-81 (50%)
Record on hard court
19-25 (43%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Geerts and V. Orlov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Geerts comes in with an Elo of 1836, against 1760 for V. Orlov: a 75-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 299 points in favour of M. Geerts. M. Geerts won 5 of the last ten matches, V. Orlov won 6. M. Geerts has 2 wins in the last five matches. V. Orlov has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Geerts the favourite.

The model gave M. Geerts the win at 72 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Geerts won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Geerts's last five matches

V. Orlov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Geerts's first match of the tournament. This is V. Orlov's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Echargui, who beat F. Maestrelli in the final (6-3 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Geerts wins 47 % (57 of 122), V. Orlov 58 % (19 of 33). In deciding sets, M. Geerts wins 43 % of the time (102 matches), V. Orlov 37 % (38 matches). After losing the first set, M. Geerts turned 18 % of matches around (148 occasions), V. Orlov 15 % (66 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Geerts went on to win 79 % of matches, V. Orlov 75 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Geerts – V. Orlov

Who is the favourite between M. Geerts and V. Orlov?
The match is over: M. Geerts won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Geerts the favourite, priced at 1.33 against 3.00 for V. Orlov. Pronocast's model had M. Geerts winning at 72 %.
When is the M. Geerts – V. Orlov match?
On Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 20:30, at the Porto tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Geerts and V. Orlov?
No meeting between M. Geerts and V. Orlov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Geerts – V. Orlov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Porto

Tournament page

Other matches on 27 September 2026

All matches on 27 September 2026