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M. Hontama vs K. Boulter prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. HontamaK. Boulter
30.9 %69.1 %
Model favourite
K. Boulter
Probability
69 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · K. Boulter

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 128hard court11:30
M. Hontama
M. Hontama
vs
K. Boulter
K. Boulter
1954
Elo
2140
1880
Elo on hard court
2038
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
2 / 10
3
Recent matches
1
–
Head-to-head
Edge
2.92
Odds
1.42

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Hontama
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
K. Boulter
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
6 – 4
Wins – losses
2 – 8
14 – 10
Sets won – lost
6 – 18
2 wins
Current streak
2 losses
17-14 (55%)
2026 record
19-19 (50%)
61-60 (50%)
Record on hard court
78-61 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Hontama and K. Boulter, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

K. Boulter comes in with an Elo of 2140, against 1954 for M. Hontama: a 186-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 159 points in favour of K. Boulter. M. Hontama won 6 of the last ten matches, K. Boulter won 2. M. Hontama has 3 wins in the last five matches. K. Boulter has 2 wins in the last five matches. In their recent head-to-head meetings, the edge goes to K. Boulter. Bookmakers make K. Boulter the favourite.

The model gave K. Boulter the win at 69 %, with a likely score of 2-0. K. Boulter won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Hontama's last five matches

K. Boulter's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Hontama beat A. Panova (7-5 6-1), then J. Burrage (2-6 6-1 6-2). This is K. Boulter's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Hontama wins 50 % (19 of 38), K. Boulter 50 % (28 of 56). In deciding sets, M. Hontama wins 42 % of the time (55 matches), K. Boulter 59 % (81 matches). After losing the first set, M. Hontama turned 20 % of matches around (84 occasions), K. Boulter 25 % (101 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Hontama went on to win 81 % of matches, K. Boulter 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Hontama – K. Boulter

Who is the favourite between M. Hontama and K. Boulter?
The match is over: K. Boulter won 2-0. Bookmakers make K. Boulter the favourite, priced at 1.42 against 2.92 for M. Hontama. Pronocast's model had K. Boulter winning at 69 %.
When is the M. Hontama – K. Boulter match?
On Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 11:30, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Hontama and K. Boulter?
No meeting between M. Hontama and K. Boulter appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Hontama – K. Boulter?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 30 September 2026

All matches on 30 September 2026