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M. Jorge vs A. Gasanova prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. JorgeA. Gasanova
36.5 %63.5 %
Model favourite
A. Gasanova
Probability
64 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-1 · M. Jorge

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Women's ChallengerCaldas da RainhaRound of 32hard court17:30
M. Jorge
M. Jorge
vs
A. Gasanova
A. Gasanova
1895
Elo
1996
1875
Elo on hard court
1948
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
5
Recent matches
8
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.60
Odds
1.43

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Jorge
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
A. Gasanova
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
5 – 5
8 – 15
Sets won – lost
11 – 12
2 losses
Current streak
2 losses
5-6 (45%)
2026 record
11-9 (55%)
5-4 (56%)
Record on hard court
20-24 (45%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Jorge and A. Gasanova, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Gasanova comes in with an Elo of 1996, against 1895 for M. Jorge: a 101-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 73 points in favour of A. Gasanova. M. Jorge won 7 of the last ten matches, A. Gasanova won 6. M. Jorge has one win in the last five matches. A. Gasanova has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make A. Gasanova the favourite.

The model gave A. Gasanova the win at 64 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Jorge won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Jorge's last five matches

A. Gasanova's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Jorge's first match of the tournament. This is A. Gasanova's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Iatcenko, who beat G. Knutson in the final (6-2 5-7 6-2).

Key numbers

In deciding sets, M. Jorge wins 50 % of the time (10 matches), A. Gasanova 48 % (29 matches). After losing the first set, M. Jorge turned 16 % of matches around (19 occasions), A. Gasanova 24 % (51 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Jorge went on to win 100 % of matches, A. Gasanova 79 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Jorge – A. Gasanova

Who is the favourite between M. Jorge and A. Gasanova?
The match is over: M. Jorge won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Gasanova the favourite, priced at 1.43 against 2.60 for M. Jorge. Pronocast's model had A. Gasanova winning at 64 %.
When is the M. Jorge – A. Gasanova match?
On Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 17:30, at the Caldas da Rainha tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Jorge and A. Gasanova?
No meeting between M. Jorge and A. Gasanova appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Jorge – A. Gasanova?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Caldas da Rainha

Tournament page

Other matches on 15 September 2026

All matches on 15 September 2026