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M. Krueger vs K. Smith prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. KruegerK. Smith
38.3 %61.7 %
Model favourite
K. Smith
Probability
62 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-1 · M. Krueger

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerTiburonRound of 32hard court19:05
M. Krueger
M. Krueger
vs
K. Smith
K. Smith
1816
Elo
1909
1787
Elo on hard court
1873
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
0
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.41
Odds
1.51

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Krueger
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
K. Smith
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
8 – 16
Sets won – lost
11 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
3 losses
8-17 (32%)
2026 record
28-21 (57%)
116-118 (50%)
Record on hard court
84-74 (53%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Krueger and K. Smith, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

K. Smith comes in with an Elo of 1909, against 1816 for M. Krueger: a 93-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 86 points in favour of K. Smith. M. Krueger won 3 of the last ten matches, K. Smith won 5. M. Krueger has one win in the last five matches. K. Smith has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, K. Smith leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make K. Smith the favourite.

The model gave K. Smith the win at 62 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Krueger won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Krueger's last five matches

K. Smith's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

K. Smith leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Krueger's first match of the tournament. This is K. Smith's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by M. Zheng, who beat T. Zink in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Krueger wins 39 % (50 of 129), K. Smith 48 % (39 of 81). In deciding sets, M. Krueger wins 49 % of the time (100 matches), K. Smith 49 % (55 matches). After losing the first set, M. Krueger turned 16 % of matches around (155 occasions), K. Smith 16 % (76 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Krueger went on to win 84 % of matches, K. Smith 80 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Krueger – K. Smith

Who is the favourite between M. Krueger and K. Smith?
The match is over: M. Krueger won 2-1. Bookmakers make K. Smith the favourite, priced at 1.51 against 2.41 for M. Krueger. Pronocast's model had K. Smith winning at 62 %.
When is the M. Krueger – K. Smith match?
On Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 19:05, at the Tiburon tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Krueger and K. Smith?
Since 2020, K. Smith leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Krueger – K. Smith?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tiburon

Tournament page

Other matches on 15 September 2026

All matches on 15 September 2026