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M. Marterer vs F. Arnaboldi prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. MartererF. Arnaboldi
49.4 %50.6 %
Model favourite
F. Arnaboldi
Probability
51 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · M. Marterer

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerBiellaQualifyingclay12:30
M. Marterer
M. Marterer
vs
F. Arnaboldi
F. Arnaboldi
1814
Elo
1748
1771
Elo on clay
1735
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
0
Recent matches
4
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.83
Odds
1.85

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Marterer
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
F. Arnaboldi
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
3 – 7
Wins – losses
4 – 6
11 – 16
Sets won – lost
12 – 13
4 losses
Current streak
1 loss
–
2026 record
14-18 (44%)
57-53 (52%)
Record on clay
53-58 (48%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Marterer and F. Arnaboldi, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Marterer comes in with an Elo of 1814, against 1748 for F. Arnaboldi: a 65-point edge. On clay, the gap is 36 points in favour of M. Marterer. M. Marterer won 3 of the last ten matches, F. Arnaboldi won 5. M. Marterer has one win in the last five matches. F. Arnaboldi has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Marterer leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Marterer the favourite.

The model gave F. Arnaboldi the win at 51 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Marterer won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Marterer's last five matches

F. Arnaboldi's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Marterer leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Marterer's first match of the tournament. This is F. Arnaboldi's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by S. Napolitano, who beat K. Feldbausch in the final (7-5 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Marterer wins 47 % (50 of 106), F. Arnaboldi 57 % (20 of 35). In deciding sets, M. Marterer wins 52 % of the time (73 matches), F. Arnaboldi 53 % (49 matches). After losing the first set, M. Marterer turned 17 % of matches around (109 occasions), F. Arnaboldi 12 % (82 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Marterer went on to win 85 % of matches, F. Arnaboldi 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Marterer – F. Arnaboldi

Who is the favourite between M. Marterer and F. Arnaboldi?
The match is over: M. Marterer won 2-0. Bookmakers cannot separate the two players: M. Marterer is priced at 1.83, F. Arnaboldi at 1.85. Pronocast's model had F. Arnaboldi winning at 51 %.
When is the M. Marterer – F. Arnaboldi match?
On Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 12:30, at the Biella tournament (Qualifying, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Marterer and F. Arnaboldi?
Since 2020, M. Marterer leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Marterer – F. Arnaboldi?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Biella

Tournament page

Other matches on 13 September 2026

All matches on 13 September 2026