M. Tobon vs T. Barrios Vera prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction

M. TobonT. Barrios Vera

22.0 %78.0 %

Model favourite: T. Barrios Vera
Probability: 78 %
Predicted score: 0-2
Actual score: 2-1 · M. Tobon

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerAntofagastaRound of 16clay18:45

M. Tobon

T. Barrios Vera

1760
Elo: 2000; 1740
Elo on clay: 1951; 5 / 10
Form (last 10): 7 / 10; 2
Recent matches: 5; Even
Head-to-head: Even; 3.64
Odds: 1.25

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Tobon

T. Barrios Vera

5 – 5
Wins – losses: 7 – 3; 12 – 12
Sets won – lost: 15 – 9; 1 win
Current streak: 1 win; 21-19 (53%)
2026 record: 26-27 (49%); 22-28 (44%)
Record on clay: 157-102 (61%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Tobon and T. Barrios Vera, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

T. Barrios Vera comes in with an Elo of 2000, against 1760 for M. Tobon: a 241-point edge. On clay, the gap is 211 points in favour of T. Barrios Vera. M. Tobon won 5 of the last ten matches, T. Barrios Vera won 7. M. Tobon has 2 wins in the last five matches. T. Barrios Vera has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make T. Barrios Vera the favourite.

The model gave T. Barrios Vera the win at 78 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Tobon won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Tobon's last five matches

VT. CigarranAntofagasta 2026 · Round of 32 · 6 October 20264-6 6-4 6-1
DJ. B. TorresCuritiba 2026 · Round of 32 · 29 September 20262-6 6-3 1-6
DE. ButvilasIstanbul 2026 · Round of 16 · 10 September 20266-7 1-6
VK. KirciIstanbul 2026 · Round of 32 · 8 September 20266-3 6-3
DR. Pacheco MendezKingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification 2026 · Quarter-final · 27 August 20262-6 4-6

T. Barrios Vera's last five matches

VF. RoncadelliAntofagasta 2026 · Round of 32 · 6 October 20266-4 6-2
DG. I. JustoCuritiba 2026 · Semi-final · 3 October 20266-4 4-6 3-6
VM. Pucinelli de AlmeidaCuritiba 2026 · Quarter-final · 2 October 20266-1 3-6 6-3
VJ. B. TorresCuritiba 2026 · Round of 16 · 30 September 20266-2 6-3
VL. J. RodriguezCuritiba 2026 · Round of 32 · 29 September 20266-1 6-1

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Tobon beat T. Cigarran (4-6 6-4 6-1). To reach this round, T. Barrios Vera beat F. Roncadelli (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Garin, who beat F. Diaz Acosta in the final (2-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Tobon wins 50 % (17 of 34), T. Barrios Vera 59 % (72 of 122). In deciding sets, M. Tobon wins 43 % of the time (28 matches), T. Barrios Vera 54 % (119 matches). After losing the first set, M. Tobon turned 20 % of matches around (40 occasions), T. Barrios Vera 18 % (137 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Tobon went on to win 76 % of matches, T. Barrios Vera 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Tobon – T. Barrios Vera

Who is the favourite between M. Tobon and T. Barrios Vera?: The match is over: M. Tobon won 2-1. Bookmakers make T. Barrios Vera the favourite, priced at 1.25 against 3.64 for M. Tobon. Pronocast's model had T. Barrios Vera winning at 78 %.
When is the M. Tobon – T. Barrios Vera match?: On Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 18:45, at the Antofagasta tournament (Round of 16, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Tobon and T. Barrios Vera?: No meeting between M. Tobon and T. Barrios Vera appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Tobon – T. Barrios Vera?: The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions