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M. Tobon vs T. Cigarran prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. TobonT. Cigarran
74.9 %25.1 %
Model favourite
M. Tobon
Probability
75 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · M. Tobon

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerAntofagastaRound of 32clay15:10
M. Tobon
M. Tobon
vs
T. Cigarran
T. Cigarran
1743
Elo
1643
1720
Elo on clay
1643
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
1
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.25
Odds
3.65

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Tobon
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
T. Cigarran
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
5 – 5
11 – 13
Sets won – lost
13 – 12
2 losses
Current streak
2 wins
20-19 (51%)
2026 record
17-15 (53%)
21-28 (43%)
Record on clay
22-35 (39%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Tobon and T. Cigarran, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Tobon comes in with an Elo of 1743, against 1643 for T. Cigarran: a 100-point edge. On clay, the gap is 76 points in favour of M. Tobon. M. Tobon won 4 of the last ten matches, T. Cigarran won 6. M. Tobon has 2 wins in the last five matches. T. Cigarran has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Tobon the favourite.

The model gave M. Tobon the win at 75 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Tobon won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Tobon's last five matches

T. Cigarran's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Tobon's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, T. Cigarran beat A. Matta (6-2 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Garin, who beat F. Diaz Acosta in the final (2-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Tobon wins 50 % (17 of 34), T. Cigarran 56 % (9 of 16). In deciding sets, M. Tobon wins 41 % of the time (27 matches), T. Cigarran 43 % (21 matches). After losing the first set, M. Tobon turned 18 % of matches around (39 occasions), T. Cigarran 18 % (38 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Tobon went on to win 76 % of matches, T. Cigarran 79 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Tobon – T. Cigarran

Who is the favourite between M. Tobon and T. Cigarran?
The match is over: M. Tobon won 2-1. Bookmakers make M. Tobon the favourite, priced at 1.25 against 3.65 for T. Cigarran. Pronocast's model had M. Tobon winning at 75 %.
When is the M. Tobon – T. Cigarran match?
On Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 15:10, at the Antofagasta tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Tobon and T. Cigarran?
No meeting between M. Tobon and T. Cigarran appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Tobon – T. Cigarran?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Antofagasta

Tournament page

Other matches on 6 October 2026

All matches on 6 October 2026