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N. Bartunkova vs A. Sabalenka prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
N. BartunkovaA. Sabalenka
15.5 %84.5 %
Model favourite
A. Sabalenka
Probability
85 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · N. Bartunkova

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 32hard court05:15
N. Bartunkova
N. Bartunkova
vs
A. Sabalenka
A. Sabalenka
2266
Elo
2589
2126
Elo on hard court
2571
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
1
Recent matches
1
–
Head-to-head
Edge
5.60
Odds
1.15

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

N. Bartunkova
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
A. Sabalenka
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
8 – 2
15 – 10
Sets won – lost
17 – 5
1 win
Current streak
1 win
34-20 (63%)
2026 record
47-9 (84%)
29-16 (64%)
Record on hard court
184-53 (78%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by N. Bartunkova and A. Sabalenka, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Sabalenka comes in with an Elo of 2589, against 2266 for N. Bartunkova: a 323-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 445 points in favour of A. Sabalenka. N. Bartunkova won 7 of the last ten matches, A. Sabalenka won 8. N. Bartunkova has 3 wins in the last five matches. A. Sabalenka has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite.

The model gave A. Sabalenka the win at 85 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Bartunkova won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

N. Bartunkova's last five matches

A. Sabalenka's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Sabalenka leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, N. Bartunkova beat M. Frech (6-2 6-2). To reach this round, A. Sabalenka beat R. Zarazua (6-1 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, N. Bartunkova wins 29 % (7 of 24), A. Sabalenka 69 % (66 of 96). In deciding sets, N. Bartunkova wins 56 % of the time (34 matches), A. Sabalenka 56 % (107 matches). After losing the first set, N. Bartunkova turned 28 % of matches around (29 occasions), A. Sabalenka 37 % (91 occasions). After winning the first set, N. Bartunkova went on to win 79 % of matches, A. Sabalenka 91 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about N. Bartunkova – A. Sabalenka

Who is the favourite between N. Bartunkova and A. Sabalenka?
The match is over: N. Bartunkova won 2-0. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite, priced at 1.15 against 5.60 for N. Bartunkova. Pronocast's model had A. Sabalenka winning at 85 %.
When is the N. Bartunkova – A. Sabalenka match?
On Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 05:15, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between N. Bartunkova and A. Sabalenka?
Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for N. Bartunkova – A. Sabalenka?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 4 October 2026

All matches on 4 October 2026