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N. Podoroska vs P. Badosa prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
N. PodoroskaP. Badosa
21.2 %78.8 %
Model favourite
P. Badosa
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · N. Podoroska

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTASao PauloSemi-finalhard court20:50
N. Podoroska
N. Podoroska
vs
P. Badosa
P. Badosa
2009
Elo
2301
1980
Elo on hard court
2169
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
3.94
Odds
1.15

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

N. Podoroska
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
P. Badosa
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
8 – 2
14 – 11
Sets won – lost
17 – 6
3 wins
Current streak
3 wins
6-6 (50%)
2026 record
26-16 (62%)
46-44 (51%)
Record on hard court
75-38 (66%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by N. Podoroska and P. Badosa, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Badosa comes in with an Elo of 2301, against 2009 for N. Podoroska: a 292-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 189 points in favour of P. Badosa. N. Podoroska won 6 of the last ten matches, P. Badosa won 8. N. Podoroska has 4 wins in the last five matches. P. Badosa has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, P. Badosa leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite.

The model gave P. Badosa the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Podoroska won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

N. Podoroska's last five matches

P. Badosa's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

P. Badosa leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, N. Podoroska beat L. Stefanini (6-3 6-4), then E. Lys (7-5 6-2), then S. Lamens (7-6 3-6 6-3). To reach this round, P. Badosa beat J. Mikulskyte (6-3 6-2), then J. Ortenzi (4-6 6-2 6-2), then M. Stoiana (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah, who beat J. Tjen in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, N. Podoroska wins 50 % (20 of 40), P. Badosa 62 % (38 of 61). In deciding sets, N. Podoroska wins 54 % of the time (54 matches), P. Badosa 56 % (73 matches). After losing the first set, N. Podoroska turned 20 % of matches around (82 occasions), P. Badosa 32 % (72 occasions). After winning the first set, N. Podoroska went on to win 82 % of matches, P. Badosa 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about N. Podoroska – P. Badosa

Who is the favourite between N. Podoroska and P. Badosa?
The match is over: N. Podoroska won 2-0. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite, priced at 1.15 against 3.94 for N. Podoroska. Pronocast's model had P. Badosa winning at 79 %.
When is the N. Podoroska – P. Badosa match?
On Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 20:50, at the Sao Paulo tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between N. Podoroska and P. Badosa?
Since 2020, P. Badosa leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for N. Podoroska – P. Badosa?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Sao Paulo

Tournament page

Other matches on 19 September 2026

All matches on 19 September 2026