Pronocast
ProductPredictionsPricing
Create account

M. Stoiana vs P. Badosa prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. StoianaP. Badosa
35.8 %64.2 %
Model favourite
P. Badosa
Probability
64 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · P. Badosa

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTASao PauloQuarter-finalhard court22:40
M. Stoiana
M. Stoiana
vs
P. Badosa
P. Badosa
2121
Elo
2290
2010
Elo on hard court
2155
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.53
Odds
1.38

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Stoiana
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
P. Badosa
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
8 – 2
15 – 9
Sets won – lost
17 – 7
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
24-18 (57%)
2026 record
25-16 (61%)
15-15 (50%)
Record on hard court
74-38 (66%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Stoiana and P. Badosa, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Badosa comes in with an Elo of 2290, against 2121 for M. Stoiana: a 169-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 145 points in favour of P. Badosa. M. Stoiana won 7 of the last ten matches, P. Badosa won 8. M. Stoiana has 3 wins in the last five matches. P. Badosa has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite.

The model gave P. Badosa the win at 64 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Badosa won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Stoiana's last five matches

P. Badosa's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Stoiana beat C. Liu (6-3 7-5), then D. Salkova (7-6 6-1). To reach this round, P. Badosa beat J. Mikulskyte (6-3 6-2), then J. Ortenzi (4-6 6-2 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah, who beat J. Tjen in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Stoiana wins 71 % (12 of 17), P. Badosa 62 % (38 of 61). In deciding sets, M. Stoiana wins 46 % of the time (24 matches), P. Badosa 56 % (73 matches). After losing the first set, M. Stoiana turned 32 % of matches around (19 occasions), P. Badosa 32 % (72 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Stoiana went on to win 69 % of matches, P. Badosa 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Stoiana – P. Badosa

Who is the favourite between M. Stoiana and P. Badosa?
The match is over: P. Badosa won 2-0. Bookmakers make P. Badosa the favourite, priced at 1.38 against 2.53 for M. Stoiana. Pronocast's model had P. Badosa winning at 64 %.
When is the M. Stoiana – P. Badosa match?
On Friday, 18 September 2026 at 22:40, at the Sao Paulo tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Stoiana and P. Badosa?
No meeting between M. Stoiana and P. Badosa appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Stoiana – P. Badosa?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Sao Paulo

Tournament page

Other matches on 18 September 2026

All matches on 18 September 2026