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P. Llamas Ruiz vs P. Nesterov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
P. Llamas RuizP. Nesterov
70.4 %29.6 %
Model favourite
P. Llamas Ruiz
Probability
70 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · P. Llamas Ruiz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerVillenaRound of 16clay16:45
P. Llamas Ruiz
P. Llamas Ruiz
vs
P. Nesterov
P. Nesterov
2059
Elo
1914
2096
Elo on clay
1884
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
6
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.34
Odds
2.93

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

P. Llamas Ruiz
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
P. Nesterov
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 12
Sets won – lost
15 – 11
1 win
Current streak
3 wins
37-20 (65%)
2026 record
27-15 (64%)
93-46 (67%)
Record on clay
33-24 (58%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by P. Llamas Ruiz and P. Nesterov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Llamas Ruiz comes in with an Elo of 2059, against 1914 for P. Nesterov: a 145-point edge. On clay, the gap is 212 points in favour of P. Llamas Ruiz. P. Llamas Ruiz won 5 of the last ten matches, P. Nesterov won 5. P. Llamas Ruiz has 3 wins in the last five matches. P. Nesterov has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Llamas Ruiz the favourite.

The model gave P. Llamas Ruiz the win at 70 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Llamas Ruiz won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

P. Llamas Ruiz's last five matches

P. Nesterov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, P. Llamas Ruiz beat L. Nardi (6-1 7-6). To reach this round, P. Nesterov beat C. Chen (3-6 6-3 6-2), then H. Barton (3-6 6-4 6-1), then C. Hernandez (6-3 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by P. Carreno-Busta, who beat H. Grenier in the final (4-6 6-1 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, P. Llamas Ruiz wins 56 % (46 of 82), P. Nesterov 59 % (16 of 27). In deciding sets, P. Llamas Ruiz wins 51 % of the time (67 matches), P. Nesterov 53 % (30 matches). After losing the first set, P. Llamas Ruiz turned 22 % of matches around (79 occasions), P. Nesterov 23 % (40 occasions). After winning the first set, P. Llamas Ruiz went on to win 88 % of matches, P. Nesterov 90 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about P. Llamas Ruiz – P. Nesterov

Who is the favourite between P. Llamas Ruiz and P. Nesterov?
The match is over: P. Llamas Ruiz won 2-1. Bookmakers make P. Llamas Ruiz the favourite, priced at 1.34 against 2.93 for P. Nesterov. Pronocast's model had P. Llamas Ruiz winning at 70 %.
When is the P. Llamas Ruiz – P. Nesterov match?
On Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 16:45, at the Villena tournament (Round of 16, clay).
What is the head-to-head between P. Llamas Ruiz and P. Nesterov?
No meeting between P. Llamas Ruiz and P. Nesterov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for P. Llamas Ruiz – P. Nesterov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Villena

Tournament page

Other matches on 8 October 2026

All matches on 8 October 2026