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Y. Shimizu vs B. Tomic prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
Y. ShimizuB. Tomic
38.7 %61.3 %
Model favourite
B. Tomic
Probability
61 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · B. Tomic

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerJingshanRound of 16hard court05:00
Y. Shimizu
Y. Shimizu
vs
B. Tomic
B. Tomic
1845
Elo
1968
1830
Elo on hard court
1935
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
1
Recent matches
5
–
Head-to-head
Edge
2.27
Odds
1.56

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

Y. Shimizu
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
B. Tomic
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
6 – 4
12 – 11
Sets won – lost
13 – 10
1 win
Current streak
1 win
22-18 (55%)
2026 record
29-22 (57%)
117-99 (54%)
Record on hard court
97-78 (55%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by Y. Shimizu and B. Tomic, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

B. Tomic comes in with an Elo of 1968, against 1845 for Y. Shimizu: a 123-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 105 points in favour of B. Tomic. Y. Shimizu won 5 of the last ten matches, B. Tomic won 6. Y. Shimizu has 3 wins in the last five matches. B. Tomic has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, B. Tomic leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make B. Tomic the favourite.

The model gave B. Tomic the win at 61 %, with a likely score of 2-0. B. Tomic won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

Y. Shimizu's last five matches

B. Tomic's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

B. Tomic leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, Y. Shimizu beat S. Sakellaridis (7-6 6-2). To reach this round, B. Tomic beat F. Sun (6-4 6-7 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by E. Spizzirri, who beat A. Bolt in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, Y. Shimizu wins 55 % (48 of 88), B. Tomic 54 % (54 of 100). In deciding sets, Y. Shimizu wins 51 % of the time (68 matches), B. Tomic 59 % (96 matches). After losing the first set, Y. Shimizu turned 17 % of matches around (96 occasions), B. Tomic 27 % (115 occasions). After winning the first set, Y. Shimizu went on to win 83 % of matches, B. Tomic 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about Y. Shimizu – B. Tomic

Who is the favourite between Y. Shimizu and B. Tomic?
The match is over: B. Tomic won 2-1. Bookmakers make B. Tomic the favourite, priced at 1.56 against 2.27 for Y. Shimizu. Pronocast's model had B. Tomic winning at 61 %.
When is the Y. Shimizu – B. Tomic match?
On Friday, 2 October 2026 at 05:00, at the Jingshan tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between Y. Shimizu and B. Tomic?
Since 2020, B. Tomic leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for Y. Shimizu – B. Tomic?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Jingshan

Tournament page

Other matches on 2 October 2026

All matches on 2 October 2026