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C. Gauff vs E. Mertens prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
C. GauffE. Mertens
78.7 %21.3 %
Model favourite
C. Gauff
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · E. Mertens

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTABeijingRound of 16hard court09:05
C. Gauff
C. Gauff
vs
E. Mertens
E. Mertens
2570
Elo
2299
2482
Elo on hard court
2154
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
3
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.23
Odds
4.00

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Gauff
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
E. Mertens
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
7 – 3
19 – 4
Sets won – lost
16 – 10
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
47-13 (78%)
2026 record
31-19 (62%)
167-59 (74%)
Record on hard court
117-77 (60%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Gauff and E. Mertens, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Gauff comes in with an Elo of 2570, against 2299 for E. Mertens: a 271-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 328 points in favour of C. Gauff. C. Gauff won 9 of the last ten matches, E. Mertens won 7. C. Gauff has 4 wins in the last five matches. E. Mertens has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, C. Gauff leads 5 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make C. Gauff the favourite.

The model gave C. Gauff the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 2-0. E. Mertens won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

C. Gauff's last five matches

E. Mertens's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Gauff leads 5 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, C. Gauff beat C. Osorio (7-6 4-6 6-2), then X. Sun (7-5 6-1). To reach this round, E. Mertens beat K. Volynets (6-0 4-6 7-5), then J. Ostapenko (6-2 3-6 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Anisimova, who beat L. Noskova in the final (6-0 2-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Gauff wins 66 % (53 of 80), E. Mertens 53 % (31 of 58). In deciding sets, C. Gauff wins 64 % of the time (98 matches), E. Mertens 50 % (86 matches). After losing the first set, C. Gauff turned 34 % of matches around (106 occasions), E. Mertens 23 % (118 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Gauff went on to win 92 % of matches, E. Mertens 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Gauff – E. Mertens

Who is the favourite between C. Gauff and E. Mertens?
The match is over: E. Mertens won 2-0. Bookmakers make C. Gauff the favourite, priced at 1.23 against 4.00 for E. Mertens. Pronocast's model had C. Gauff winning at 79 %.
When is the C. Gauff – E. Mertens match?
On Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 09:05, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Gauff and E. Mertens?
Since 2020, C. Gauff leads 5 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Gauff – E. Mertens?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 7 October 2026

All matches on 7 October 2026