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M. McDonald vs R. Nijboer prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. McDonaldR. Nijboer
46.6 %53.4 %
Model favourite
R. Nijboer
Probability
53 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · R. Nijboer

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerBragaRound of 32clay19:25
M. McDonald
M. McDonald
vs
R. Nijboer
R. Nijboer
1954
Elo
1857
1673
Elo on clay
1894
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
1
Recent matches
6
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.08
Odds
1.69

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. McDonald
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
R. Nijboer
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
8 – 15
Sets won – lost
12 – 11
2 losses
Current streak
2 wins
17-24 (41%)
2026 record
15-10 (60%)
13-29 (31%)
Record on clay
45-44 (51%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. McDonald and R. Nijboer, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. McDonald comes in with an Elo of 1954, against 1857 for R. Nijboer: a 97-point edge. On clay, the gap is 221 points in favour of R. Nijboer. M. McDonald won 3 of the last ten matches, R. Nijboer won 7. M. McDonald has 2 wins in the last five matches. R. Nijboer has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make R. Nijboer the favourite.

The model gave R. Nijboer the win at 53 %, with a likely score of 2-0. R. Nijboer won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. McDonald's last five matches

R. Nijboer's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. McDonald's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, R. Nijboer beat N. Hipfl (5-7 7-5 6-1), then B. Hassan (6-3 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by L. Mikrut, who beat V. Gaubas in the final (6-3 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. McDonald wins 42 % (52 of 124), R. Nijboer 46 % (18 of 39). In deciding sets, M. McDonald wins 46 % of the time (101 matches), R. Nijboer 36 % (44 matches). After losing the first set, M. McDonald turned 17 % of matches around (146 occasions), R. Nijboer 17 % (53 occasions). After winning the first set, M. McDonald went on to win 78 % of matches, R. Nijboer 70 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. McDonald – R. Nijboer

Who is the favourite between M. McDonald and R. Nijboer?
The match is over: R. Nijboer won 2-1. Bookmakers make R. Nijboer the favourite, priced at 1.69 against 2.08 for M. McDonald. Pronocast's model had R. Nijboer winning at 53 %.
When is the M. McDonald – R. Nijboer match?
On Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 19:25, at the Braga tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. McDonald and R. Nijboer?
No meeting between M. McDonald and R. Nijboer appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. McDonald – R. Nijboer?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Braga

Tournament page

Other matches on 7 October 2026

All matches on 7 October 2026