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M. Ristic vs A. Rus prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. RisticA. Rus
63.6 %36.4 %
Model favourite
M. Ristic
Probability
64 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · M. Ristic

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Women's ChallengerTolentinoRound of 32clay15:15
M. Ristic
M. Ristic
vs
A. Rus
A. Rus
1992
Elo
1878
1978
Elo on clay
1855
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
4
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Ristic
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
A. Rus
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 10
Sets won – lost
14 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
2 losses
20-15 (57%)
2026 record
6-11 (35%)
23-19 (55%)
Record on clay
73-51 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Ristic and A. Rus, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Ristic comes in with an Elo of 1992, against 1878 for A. Rus: a 114-point edge. On clay, the gap is 123 points in favour of M. Ristic. M. Ristic won 7 of the last ten matches, A. Rus won 5. M. Ristic has 2 wins in the last five matches. A. Rus has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave M. Ristic the win at 64 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Ristic won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Ristic's last five matches

A. Rus's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is M. Ristic's first match of the tournament. This is A. Rus's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by O. Oliynykova, who beat N. Brancaccio in the final (6-2 6-0).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Ristic wins 53 % (10 of 19), A. Rus 32 % (16 of 50). In deciding sets, M. Ristic wins 53 % of the time (17 matches), A. Rus 41 % (69 matches). After losing the first set, M. Ristic turned 21 % of matches around (24 occasions), A. Rus 17 % (109 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Ristic went on to win 85 % of matches, A. Rus 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Ristic – A. Rus

Who is the favourite between M. Ristic and A. Rus?
The match is over: M. Ristic won 2-1. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had M. Ristic winning at 64 %.
When is the M. Ristic – A. Rus match?
On Monday, 21 September 2026 at 15:15, at the Tolentino tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Ristic and A. Rus?
No meeting between M. Ristic and A. Rus appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Ristic – A. Rus?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tolentino

Tournament page

Other matches on 21 September 2026

All matches on 21 September 2026