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M. Ristic vs J. Pieri prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. RisticJ. Pieri
82.7 %17.3 %
Model favourite
M. Ristic
Probability
83 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · J. Pieri

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Women's ChallengerTolentinoQuarter-finalclay14:15
M. Ristic
M. Ristic
vs
J. Pieri
J. Pieri
2020
Elo
1764
2009
Elo on clay
1762
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
5
Recent matches
5
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.14
Odds
4.85

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Ristic
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
J. Pieri
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
4 – 6
13 – 11
Sets won – lost
9 – 13
2 wins
Current streak
4 wins
22-15 (59%)
2026 record
5-8 (38%)
25-19 (57%)
Record on clay
18-17 (51%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Ristic and J. Pieri, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Ristic comes in with an Elo of 2020, against 1764 for J. Pieri: a 256-point edge. On clay, the gap is 247 points in favour of M. Ristic. M. Ristic won 7 of the last ten matches, J. Pieri won 6. M. Ristic has 4 wins in the last five matches. J. Pieri has 4 wins in the last five matches. In their recent head-to-head meetings, the edge goes to M. Ristic. Bookmakers make M. Ristic the favourite.

The model gave M. Ristic the win at 83 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. Pieri won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Ristic's last five matches

J. Pieri's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Ristic beat A. Rus (4-6 6-0 6-3), then N. Basiletti (6-3 3-6 6-3). To reach this round, J. Pieri beat Y. Morderger (7-5 6-3), then A. Kucmova (6-0 6-3), then G. De Angelis (6-2 6-0), then L. Romero Gormaz (3-6 6-4 6-1). In 2025, the tournament was won by O. Oliynykova, who beat N. Brancaccio in the final (6-2 6-0).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Ristic wins 53 % (10 of 19), J. Pieri 45 % (5 of 11). In deciding sets, M. Ristic wins 58 % of the time (19 matches), J. Pieri 62 % (13 matches). After losing the first set, M. Ristic turned 24 % of matches around (25 occasions), J. Pieri 22 % (27 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Ristic went on to win 86 % of matches, J. Pieri 80 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Ristic – J. Pieri

Who is the favourite between M. Ristic and J. Pieri?
The match is over: J. Pieri won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Ristic the favourite, priced at 1.14 against 4.85 for J. Pieri. Pronocast's model had M. Ristic winning at 83 %.
When is the M. Ristic – J. Pieri match?
On Friday, 25 September 2026 at 14:15, at the Tolentino tournament (Quarter-final, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Ristic and J. Pieri?
No meeting between M. Ristic and J. Pieri appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Ristic – J. Pieri?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tolentino

Tournament page

Other matches on 25 September 2026

All matches on 25 September 2026