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M. Trungelliti vs R. Sakamoto prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. TrungellitiR. Sakamoto
33.9 %66.1 %
Model favourite
R. Sakamoto
Probability
66 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · R. Sakamoto

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPShanghaiRound of 128hard court09:00
M. Trungelliti
M. Trungelliti
vs
R. Sakamoto
R. Sakamoto
2072
Elo
2073
1857
Elo on hard court
2016
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
3
Edge
Head-to-head
–
2.69
Odds
1.46

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Trungelliti
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
R. Sakamoto
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
7 – 3
14 – 15
Sets won – lost
16 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
2 wins
32-27 (54%)
2026 record
37-22 (63%)
45-44 (51%)
Record on hard court
64-45 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Trungelliti and R. Sakamoto, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2072 against 2073): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 159 points in favour of R. Sakamoto. M. Trungelliti won 5 of the last ten matches, R. Sakamoto won 7. M. Trungelliti has 3 wins in the last five matches. R. Sakamoto has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Trungelliti leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make R. Sakamoto the favourite.

The model gave R. Sakamoto the win at 66 %, with a likely score of 2-0. R. Sakamoto won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Trungelliti's last five matches

R. Sakamoto's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Trungelliti leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Trungelliti's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, R. Sakamoto beat S. C. Hong (6-3 7-5), then K. Jacquet (7-6 4-6 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by V. Vacherot, who beat A. Rinderknech in the final (4-6 6-3 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Trungelliti wins 49 % (55 of 113), R. Sakamoto 51 % (35 of 69). In deciding sets, M. Trungelliti wins 59 % of the time (133 matches), R. Sakamoto 65 % (46 matches). After losing the first set, M. Trungelliti turned 31 % of matches around (143 occasions), R. Sakamoto 26 % (68 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Trungelliti went on to win 83 % of matches, R. Sakamoto 89 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Trungelliti – R. Sakamoto

Who is the favourite between M. Trungelliti and R. Sakamoto?
The match is over: R. Sakamoto won 2-0. Bookmakers make R. Sakamoto the favourite, priced at 1.46 against 2.69 for M. Trungelliti. Pronocast's model had R. Sakamoto winning at 66 %.
When is the M. Trungelliti – R. Sakamoto match?
On Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 09:00, at the Shanghai tournament (Round of 128, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Trungelliti and R. Sakamoto?
Since 2020, M. Trungelliti leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Trungelliti – R. Sakamoto?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 7 October 2026

All matches on 7 October 2026