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N. Basiletti vs M. Ristic prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
N. BasilettiM. Ristic
48.5 %51.5 %
Model favourite
M. Ristic
Probability
51 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · M. Ristic

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Women's ChallengerTolentinoRound of 16clay20:10
N. Basiletti
N. Basiletti
vs
M. Ristic
M. Ristic
2001
Elo
2004
1997
Elo on clay
1991
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
5
Recent matches
4
–
Head-to-head
Edge
1.98
Odds
1.70

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

N. Basiletti
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
M. Ristic
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
6 – 4
16 – 6
Sets won – lost
13 – 11
1 win
Current streak
1 win
13-8 (62%)
2026 record
21-15 (58%)
13-9 (59%)
Record on clay
24-19 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by N. Basiletti and M. Ristic, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2001 against 2004): nothing separates them in the model's rating. N. Basiletti won 9 of the last ten matches, M. Ristic won 7. N. Basiletti has 4 wins in the last five matches. M. Ristic has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Ristic leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Ristic the favourite.

The model gave M. Ristic the win at 51 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Ristic won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

N. Basiletti's last five matches

M. Ristic's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Ristic leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, N. Basiletti beat L. Samson (6-3 6-4). To reach this round, M. Ristic beat A. Rus (4-6 6-0 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by O. Oliynykova, who beat N. Brancaccio in the final (6-2 6-0).

Key numbers

After winning the first set, N. Basiletti went on to win 93 % of matches, M. Ristic 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about N. Basiletti – M. Ristic

Who is the favourite between N. Basiletti and M. Ristic?
The match is over: M. Ristic won 2-1. Bookmakers make M. Ristic the favourite, priced at 1.70 against 1.98 for N. Basiletti. Pronocast's model had M. Ristic winning at 51 %.
When is the N. Basiletti – M. Ristic match?
On Wednesday, 23 September 2026 at 20:10, at the Tolentino tournament (Round of 16, clay).
What is the head-to-head between N. Basiletti and M. Ristic?
Since 2020, M. Ristic leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for N. Basiletti – M. Ristic?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tolentino

Tournament page

Other matches on 23 September 2026

All matches on 23 September 2026