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N. Brancaccio vs M. L. Carle prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
N. BrancaccioM. L. Carle
57.1 %42.9 %
Model favourite
N. Brancaccio
Probability
57 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · N. Brancaccio

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Women's ChallengerTolentinoRound of 32clay12:15
N. Brancaccio
N. Brancaccio
vs
M. L. Carle
M. L. Carle
1915
Elo
1884
1942
Elo on clay
1880
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
2
Recent matches
4
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.61
Odds
2.16

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

N. Brancaccio
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
M. L. Carle
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
5 – 5
11 – 13
Sets won – lost
11 – 12
2 losses
Current streak
2 losses
11-18 (38%)
2026 record
12-13 (48%)
52-59 (47%)
Record on clay
82-65 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by N. Brancaccio and M. L. Carle, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

N. Brancaccio comes in with an Elo of 1915, against 1884 for M. L. Carle: a 31-point edge. On clay, the gap is 62 points in favour of N. Brancaccio. N. Brancaccio won 5 of the last ten matches, M. L. Carle won 4. N. Brancaccio has one win in the last five matches. M. L. Carle has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. L. Carle leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make N. Brancaccio the favourite.

The model gave N. Brancaccio the win at 57 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Brancaccio won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

N. Brancaccio's last five matches

M. L. Carle's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. L. Carle leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is N. Brancaccio's first match of the tournament. This is M. L. Carle's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by O. Oliynykova, who beat N. Brancaccio in the final (6-2 6-0).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, N. Brancaccio wins 35 % (11 of 31), M. L. Carle 38 % (18 of 48). In deciding sets, N. Brancaccio wins 32 % of the time (41 matches), M. L. Carle 51 % (73 matches). After losing the first set, N. Brancaccio turned 13 % of matches around (68 occasions), M. L. Carle 24 % (108 occasions). After winning the first set, N. Brancaccio went on to win 77 % of matches, M. L. Carle 79 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about N. Brancaccio – M. L. Carle

Who is the favourite between N. Brancaccio and M. L. Carle?
The match is over: N. Brancaccio won 2-1. Bookmakers make N. Brancaccio the favourite, priced at 1.61 against 2.16 for M. L. Carle. Pronocast's model had N. Brancaccio winning at 57 %.
When is the N. Brancaccio – M. L. Carle match?
On Tuesday, 22 September 2026 at 12:15, at the Tolentino tournament (Round of 32, clay).
What is the head-to-head between N. Brancaccio and M. L. Carle?
Since 2020, M. L. Carle leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for N. Brancaccio – M. L. Carle?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tolentino

Tournament page

Other matches on 22 September 2026

All matches on 22 September 2026