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P. Kotov vs B. Tomic prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
P. KotovB. Tomic
56.7 %43.3 %
Model favourite
P. Kotov
Probability
57 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · P. Kotov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerGuangzhou 2Semi-finalhard court13:55
P. Kotov
P. Kotov
vs
B. Tomic
B. Tomic
2034
Elo
1986
2059
Elo on hard court
1950
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
7
Recent matches
5
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.66
Odds
2.10

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

P. Kotov
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
B. Tomic
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
6 – 4
15 – 9
Sets won – lost
14 – 10
3 wins
Current streak
3 wins
26-8 (76%)
2026 record
27-20 (57%)
95-73 (57%)
Record on hard court
95-76 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by P. Kotov and B. Tomic, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Kotov comes in with an Elo of 2034, against 1986 for B. Tomic: a 49-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 109 points in favour of P. Kotov. P. Kotov won 7 of the last ten matches, B. Tomic won 6. P. Kotov has 4 wins in the last five matches. B. Tomic has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Kotov the favourite.

The model gave P. Kotov the win at 57 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Kotov won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

P. Kotov's last five matches

B. Tomic's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, P. Kotov beat S. Mochizuki (7-6 6-1), then A. Santillan (6-4 7-6), then R. Noguchi (6-1 7-6). To reach this round, B. Tomic beat Y. Kikuchi (6-0 6-2), then Ja. Delaney (6-3 6-2), then A. Binda (6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. M. Cerundolo, who beat A. Tabilo in the final (6-2 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, P. Kotov wins 55 % (71 of 129), B. Tomic 56 % (54 of 96). In deciding sets, P. Kotov wins 54 % of the time (101 matches), B. Tomic 59 % (94 matches). After losing the first set, P. Kotov turned 24 % of matches around (136 occasions), B. Tomic 27 % (112 occasions). After winning the first set, P. Kotov went on to win 84 % of matches, B. Tomic 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about P. Kotov – B. Tomic

Who is the favourite between P. Kotov and B. Tomic?
The match is over: P. Kotov won 2-0. Bookmakers make P. Kotov the favourite, priced at 1.66 against 2.10 for B. Tomic. Pronocast's model had P. Kotov winning at 57 %.
When is the P. Kotov – B. Tomic match?
On Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 13:55, at the Guangzhou 2 tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between P. Kotov and B. Tomic?
No meeting between P. Kotov and B. Tomic appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for P. Kotov – B. Tomic?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guangzhou 2

Tournament page

Other matches on 19 September 2026

All matches on 19 September 2026